Shooting Star preflop against Elezra

[Exitonly]

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Exit,

You think if we cbet 7k or so, that eli is going to come over the top with a worse hand? By worse, I mean a hand w/ <45% equity or whatever. Like AQo, JQ, whatever.

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i'm not saying he's GOING to do it, but you have to give him the chance to right? also if he somehow got here w/ lower flush draw he's probably shoving, and we got that pretty crushed. (and he'd fold a naked flush draw to a 2x pot shove right?)

[shaundeeb]

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Exit,

You think if we cbet 7k or so, that eli is going to come over the top with a worse hand? By worse, I mean a hand w/ <45% equity or whatever. Like AQo, JQ, whatever.

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thats why I said a smaller cbet works too 5-6k

[Ansky]

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Exit,

You think if we cbet 7k or so, that eli is going to come over the top with a worse hand? By worse, I mean a hand w/ <45% equity or whatever. Like AQo, JQ, whatever.

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i'm not saying he's GOING to do it, but you have to give him the chance to right? also if he somehow got here w/ lower flush draw he's probably shoving, and we got that pretty crushed. (and he'd fold a naked flush draw to a 2x pot shove right?)

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well, regarding having to give him a 'chance' to do that, there is the flip side that he will be more inclined to now shove hands we wanted him to fold like mid pps. If you think that a bet of 7k "induces a shove" then you obviously have to agree with the fact that a 20k bet increases folding equity over a hand like 99 right? Or are you saying 7k and 20k have the same folding equity over a hand like 99?

[Exitonly]

yea, i think 20k probably has marginally better FE vs hands like 99 (which if he had, and thought it was worth continuing with, he's probably shoving pf right? maybe it's viable to just call and get it in on non AK flops?)

i dunno, maybe i'm just drastically overestimating the times elezra would mess up pf (like, caclling w/ JTdd or QJdd or something) or on the flop (deciding we're FOS; etc).

[Ansky]

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hands like 99 (which if he had, and thought it was worth continuing with, he's probably shoving pf right?

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no i really doubt that.

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but shoving is weird for metagame

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eh? Who cares. cEV is everything here, and I really don't give a [censored] how this effects future bets I make at the table or vs eli elezra, and I really doubt it is bad for metagame at all. You just need to now adjust.

[Exitonly]

yea, you replied before i edited, i didnt like my point about metagame either

[jlocdog]

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ansky with our hand how is a free card bad?

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Cause generally if we hit it'd be pretty hard to get paid off against the hands he is checking behind, and if we miss on the turn and it blanks off, it becomes very difficult to win the pot unimproved, especially because we are oop.

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Seriously good point.

[NoahSD]

I really think we should be making it less preflop here. If we make it 4k and he calls, we get room to c/r and b/f the flop.

[ZeeJustin]

I don't like a reraise preflop here. He will be willing to go to the felt too often on flops without an ace or a king, but he probably won't pay us off if we hit, unless he has exactly AQ and an ace flops (barring unlikely scenarios like straights or flushes of course).

I think our equity is much higher just calling. We will win almost as much when we both flop a pair despite not having to put in nearly as much preflop, and we lose a lot less when we miss and he has a hand like an overpair or combo draw.

For the reraise preflop to be correct, we would need to be confident that he would fold often on ragged flops for 1 bet, but I just don't think that's the case.

Basically, given the momentum as you described it so far, he will "accidentally" be playing fairly close to perfectly in this pot if you reraise preflop.

Or to put it another way, we are turning our hand into a bluff way too often in a spot where he will be willing to call one down unless of course an ace or a king flops, and he will be legitimately worried that he does not have the best hand.

Edit: What do you guys think about a donk reraise preflop to like 2600? It will disguise our hand pretty well. He will probably be too suspicious of a huge hand to play back at us with air, so we will still win often if we miss, and if we hit, he might call an extra bet because he will have trouble putting us on AK. I know it sounds weird, but I'm thinking maybe we can get him to play badly (FToP-wise) if we take this weird line that is rarely taken with AK.

[jaroot]

I like the small re-raise too (as you mentioned in your edit). If we call with AKs.. too often the UTG limper calls too and I don't think we want him getting in there with his small pair cheaply. You've now got position on Eli.. and can better control the pot size here against a good agressive player. If he repops PF.. well then you can probably lay it down, but if just calls you've got him in a good spot.