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Old 06-15-2007, 05:15 PM
jstill jstill is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
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Default Re: AA on paird Board

call

this isnt the total answer of why callings best but consider this: we cant raise to protect our hand from any gutshot hands, so if we re raising its for value not protection.

however, raising here we probably do not have an equity edge against even sb HU when he donks out 5 ways on this flop, throw in the callers inbetween on this board with multiple people behind them and i think the strength these villains have shown actually make it less likely we have a pot equity edge despite the fact conceptually we need less equity to raise for value vs more opponents (basic theory there, but debatable about the perception of our equity in each case for sure HU vs 4 ways as in the OP).

also think from a HU standpoint to raise for value here, if we re always showing down, we need more than just an equity edge for that line to be more ev than just calling down since he ll put in more action with some range of better hands. Here one could argue the pot is so protected u can safely trust villains actions and fold safely to any 3bet, i wont argue but also say its not 100%.

christian, nit point but i would say 88 is more likely than AJ. we have 2 As and 2 Js are on the board and 88 is more likely to call preflop here than probably even AJs which is only 1 combo and 3 offsuit combos vs 3 of 88. KJ seems unlikely esp offsuit and suited again could only be 2 combos.
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