KQs busted flush river decision

unzip · #1 08-12-2007, 11:51 PM

Villain is 33/11/1.44 over 70 hands. Whats your river line here? Comments on flop/turn play also welcome.

0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 5 folds.

Flop: (5.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero ???

Shillx · #2 08-13-2007, 12:00 AM

I'd start by checking

Aaron W. · #3 08-13-2007, 12:03 AM

I'd check-call or bet-fold. Having a read would influence the decision one way or the other. My default would be to bet-fold because he's not not likely betting a lot of medium strength hands (which you beat) on this scary board.

00Snitch · #4 08-13-2007, 12:06 AM

lol i dunno. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

There isn't much that MP2 bets here that you beat. He's gunna be pretty brave to fire again with KT/JT, i guess he'll bet QJ, all those are only a few combos, K9.

I think I can probably find enough worse hands that will call a bet to bet/fold this.

Whats his wtsd? With a high (say high 30s or 40) wtsd, I would like a bet more, thinking that I will get paid off more often by the Tx and 9x hands that raise this flop. I think QJ will always call, so that is good too.

00Snitch · #5 08-13-2007, 12:07 AM

damnit! it takes me so long to write my post that everyone responds before me and now i look like a copy-cat!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

00Snitch · #6 08-13-2007, 12:08 AM

Hrmmm, Shillx, did you notice that we don't actually have two opponents as the converter suggests on the river.

KitCloudkicker · #7 08-13-2007, 12:10 AM

B/f.

he'll check all hands we beat. but he might call a bet.

he'll bet all hands we dont beat if we check.

he'll raise all hands we dont beat.