I hate these spots so much

[Dave D]

I'm ITM in one of the daily doubles on FTP, theres about 25 left.

Villian hasn't showed down a hand like ever (literally I've only seen him show KK), but has been fairly active in LP or in blind steal situations. Thats pretty much the only time he's won a pot. Basically TAG except for blind steals.

What should I do here. In general this is a problem for me, defending blinds late tournament and I don't know what to do. I see an Ace, and think I have to be ahead at least pf. Also, I know I'm going to be in position which makes me want to call as well.

On the flop I'm thinking ok I hit part of it, why don't I float his obvious C-bet and see what happens on the turn. Good chance he checks and gives up.

Also, villian's PF raise size seems suspicious, it's a little more than a standard raise, and seems to say I want to buy this pot. But that could just be the sign of a good player not wanting to give me odds to call.

Thoughts?

Blinds 5000/2500-600

Villian has 132,000
Hero has 104,000

Villian is SB and opens for 18,000
Hero is BB and calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets 35,000, Hero calls

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian pushes, hero has 50,000 left

yeah I know I hate that flop call and I know it's a spew. But I don't know what else to do. Again, the size of his bet makes me think he's trying to buy it and is bluffing.

[emb]

What's the average stack?

If you are so sure he is stealing, you can push pre-flop. If not, fold.

emb

[ChicagoPoker]

This is a clear fold IMO. Like you said, the only thing you've seen him show is KK.

I like to repop PF here if I think he's stealing.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the average stack?

If you are so sure he is stealing, you can push pre-flop. If not, fold.

emb

[/ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.

Also, in a standard donkament, we're not gonna have a "everyone covers me 3x" situation very often, unless we're pushing or folding PF anyway.

[emb]

[ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can say that average stack doesn't matter. If everyone else is sitting on 10-20k you should be far less inclined to clash with the only other 100k+ stack than if stacks are fairly even.

emb

[ThePershore]

Honestly I think the whole hand is really bad.

Pre-flop - you described villian as TAG, A2o doesn't play very well post flop. If he's opening his SB a lot push, otherwise fold.

Flop - again push or fold, you hate pretty much every turn card so if he 2 barrels you have to fold unimproved (which is a lot of the time) and to be honest I don't think you're not deep enough to float. If you think he c-bets a high % then push.

Turn - fold.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can say that average stack doesn't matter. If everyone else is sitting on 10-20k you should be far less inclined to clash with the only other 100k+ stack than if stacks are fairly even.

emb

[/ QUOTE ]

If something is +EV, then it's +ev, it doesn't matter against who. I like playing against big stacks because 1. they tend to be spewy/overaggressive and 2. they give you the best implied odds. Try to stack them with a set.

If the only 100k stack at the table plays back at you PF when you have JJ+, I'm gonna try to get my money in just like anyone else.

Maybe if you specify what the table average stack is, that might kinda sorta matter, but DEF not the tourney average stack.

edit: What I'm basically trying to say is yes, don't steal wildly from big stacks sure. But that has little to do with the average stack at the table. Also, average is a bad number to look at, if anything you should be looking at median stack. Average is always gonna be skewed by the big and small stacks.

Again, unless this is an unusualy deep stacked tournament, average doesn't matter.

[Proofrock]

[ QUOTE ]
1. they tend to be spewy/overaggressive and 2. they give you the best implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both good reasons NOT to take a passive, call off all your chips approach w/A2o here.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can say that average stack doesn't matter. If everyone else is sitting on 10-20k you should be far less inclined to clash with the only other 100k+ stack than if stacks are fairly even.

emb

[/ QUOTE ]

If something is +EV, then it's +ev, it doesn't matter against who. I like playing against big stacks because 1. they tend to be spewy/overaggressive and 2. they give you the best implied odds. Try to stack them with a set.

If the only 100k stack at the table plays back at you PF when you have JJ+, I'm gonna try to get my money in just like anyone else.

Maybe if you specify what the table average stack is, that might kinda sorta matter, but DEF not the tourney average stack.

edit: What I'm basically trying to say is yes, don't steal wildly from big stacks sure. But that has little to do with the average stack at the table. Also, average is a bad number to look at, if anything you should be looking at median stack. Average is always gonna be skewed by the big and small stacks.

Again, unless this is an unusualy deep stacked tournament, average doesn't matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, average stack is kinduv a bad indicator that A LOT OF players get too close to.

But, I'm lost. So, are you still trying to justify your play here, Dave? A2o - you're calling 20% of your stack to see a flop. If you miss, you're second guessing yourself the entire hand. Are you trying to hit trip 2s here? Do you think you're implied odds can ever justify that? If an A comes out, you're probably OK, but this is either push or fold, and I'm heavily leaning toward fold because you can probably find a a better resteal opportunity than this a few hands down the road.

Barry



Barry

[emb]

[ QUOTE ]
If something is +EV, then it's +ev, it doesn't matter against who.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but even a play that is always +cEV can be either +$EV or -$EV depending on stack distributions.

That said, I take your point that average chip stack isn't a great indicator of chip distribution. I was really making the point that a definitive answer to the original post wouldn't be possible without more information on stack sizes (beyond just hero and villain).

emb