I hate these spots so much
 

I'm ITM in one of the daily doubles on FTP, theres about 25 left.

Villian hasn't showed down a hand like ever (literally I've only seen him show KK), but has been fairly active in LP or in blind steal situations. Thats pretty much the only time he's won a pot. Basically TAG except for blind steals.

What should I do here. In general this is a problem for me, defending blinds late tournament and I don't know what to do. I see an Ace, and think I have to be ahead at least pf. Also, I know I'm going to be in position which makes me want to call as well.

On the flop I'm thinking ok I hit part of it, why don't I float his obvious C-bet and see what happens on the turn. Good chance he checks and gives up.

Also, villian's PF raise size seems suspicious, it's a little more than a standard raise, and seems to say I want to buy this pot. But that could just be the sign of a good player not wanting to give me odds to call.

Thoughts?

Blinds 5000/2500-600

Villian has 132,000
Hero has 104,000

Villian is SB and opens for 18,000
Hero is BB and calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop:

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian bets 35,000, Hero calls

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villian pushes, hero has 50,000 left

yeah I know I hate that flop call and I know it's a spew. But I don't know what else to do. Again, the size of his bet makes me think he's trying to buy it and is bluffing.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

What's the average stack?

If you are so sure he is stealing, you can push pre-flop. If not, fold.

emb

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

This is a clear fold IMO. Like you said, the only thing you've seen him show is KK.

I like to repop PF here if I think he's stealing.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

Dave,

Based on your read of the pf raiser and the size of your stacks this is entirely a pf issue. Push or fold imo.

Jarid

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

Another way to look at it is you only got dealt one card basically and it's an ace.

I think his prf bet would have been enough to fold me once. I would watch to see if it was a pattern but I would have weakly folded if this wasn't something he did often sb vs bb.

As played... I'm not calling off my stack with a pair of ducks... just can't do it.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

You haven't seen him show down a hand -- is this because he's folding frequently to re-raises, or because he isn't getting reraised? If he's folding frequently, then you could shove preflop (knowing you'll probably be 30/70 to win if called).

If you're not going to shove preflop, then I'd fold. I don't really like just calling because it puts in too much of your stack with a hand that isn't going to be easy to play after the flop (if an ace falls you'll wonder if you're outkicked, if a 2 comes you'll make bottom pair and could be behind anything, and if blanks fall you'll be wondering if your ace high is still good, since the flop usually misses both players).

Once the flop comes out you need to decide whether or not you're committed to the pot -- you've already put in 18% of your stack, and your hand isn't strong enough to slowplay, so either shove or fold the flop.

With stacks so shallow, you really shouldn't put so much of your stack in without some kind of a plan -- otherwise you're liable to call one more street only to find yourself pot stuck.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

[ QUOTE ]
You haven't seen him show down a hand -- is this because he's folding frequently to re-raises, or because he isn't getting reraised? If he's folding frequently, then you could shove preflop (knowing you'll probably be 30/70 to win if called).



[/ QUOTE ]

He just hasn't played many hands, folding PF. The only times he's played a hand was OTB, to steal blinds, but has done that a lot.

[ QUOTE ]

With stacks so shallow, you really shouldn't put so much of your stack in without some kind of a plan -- otherwise you're liable to call one more street only to find yourself pot stuck.

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Usually I agree with that, and with a hand like 99+, AQ/AK I would push PF. This hand is more about the times we don't have those hands though.

My problem is that in my mind, a lot of these situations end up as:

He raises PF. He c-bets. Then he shuts down on the turn, because he was trying to steal the whole time, and missed, at which point virutally any bet is going to take down the pot, regardless of what I have.

I'm basically hoping for that to happen here, that and I figure I have 5 outs. villian's bet sizes look so much like that's what's gonna happen here (he's basically overbetting twice). He just *looks* like he's trying to buy the pot. However, I feel like I'm falling into a trap thinking that way.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

[ QUOTE ]
What's the average stack?

If you are so sure he is stealing, you can push pre-flop. If not, fold.

emb

[/ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.

Also, in a standard donkament, we're not gonna have a "everyone covers me 3x" situation very often, unless we're pushing or folding PF anyway.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

EEEEEEEEEEWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW. C'mon, Dave, you know better than that:

30K in the pot. Based on his raising range, I say maybe half the time he's gonna fold, you win 30K. Half the time, he's gonna call, you win 100K about ~35% of the time or so. Hands that rank heaviest in his calling range are those that dominate you. From what I remember from advancing late in a daily double (haven't played in a while), you are probably right around the average stack. So, I don't like pushing.

Calling sucks the fattest of dicks, even in position, it's just way too much of your stack to be risking at this point. You're gonna suffer through a continuation bet, if he checks and you bet, it's gonna be a perfect CR spot, so you really can't use position here as it sucks given the size of the pot. So, you're doing this hoping for an A. Looks like an easy fold in this spot.

Re: I hate these spots so much
 

[ QUOTE ]

Average stack doesn't matter. I think this is probably one of the biggest mistakes new players make. Who cares what everyone has, it's what you have compared to the blinds that matters.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can say that average stack doesn't matter. If everyone else is sitting on 10-20k you should be far less inclined to clash with the only other 100k+ stack than if stacks are fairly even.

emb