hand from stox video

[The Funky Llama]

I don't hate a bet here but I think its a fantastic spot to check. It's very unlikely that UTG has a pocket pair because he is agro and didn't raise the flop. If he doesn't have a pocket pair he is likely to either have a king or a hand like JTs that might bluff 1 or 2 streets or pair up on the river. He is even more likely to hold a K because you have 2 queens in your hand. I don't feel comfortable folding QQ here to any turn action for one bet. If you check the action goes bet/raise, you can save 2 bets the times someone has a king (assuming you were going call at least the turn) and 3 bets (assuming you were bet/calling the turn and calling the river).

Getting UTG to bluff the turn or getting him to make a river call with a hand like AT/AJ that would fold the turn is pretty huge. IMO, giving a free card to a hand like AJ is not at all a concern here for a few reasons:

1) It only matters if AJ would actually fold the turn, which it might not. It also only matters if button DOESN'T have an Ax hand that would call the turn. If he wouldn't fold the turn with Ax, which he very well might not, UTG is effectively drawing dead.

2) If button would call a river bet with an Ax hand that would have folded to a turn bet, or if he would bet the turn instead of folding to your bet, it basically offsets the cost of letting him draw (and as we said earlier, he might be drawing dead anyway).

It is possible that the passive button has a pocket pair, but he will often bet both streets with it anyway. Also, loose passive players are actually the type that make dumb bluffs in spots like this. The agro lagtags (like utg) can often realize when you are showing down and not make a dumb bluff. But I could definitely see button betting a hand like QJ here, which is obviously a coup. Also, just as a check might induce a river call from UTG, a check might also induce a river call from a button who might fold something like A8.

So basically, one of these guys will have a king an awful lot and you save one bet because (imo) you can't fold. You also induce a lot of river calls or bluffs.

There are a few possible negatives of checking the turn as I see it:

1) If the turn is checked around when you could have gotten bets from hands like AT that would call both streets.

2) If UTG bets a worse hand and button bluffraises. This is very unlikely given the description of button.

Seems like the positives outweigh the negatives in this specific spot. I've seen some of stox's other videos and he is great at picking up on spots such as these (see his old article on the "turn value check" as reference)

[surfdoc]

Thanks for the elaborate post. Do you think anything changes with the updated stat reads on the players in my other post?

[gaming_mouse]

Llama,

I enjoyed your post.

gm

[Oink]

Awesome post Llama

[Heisenb3rg]

Im very torn between the correct action, but I like stoxs action...

The only problem I have with this, is it basically turns his hand face open, so it depends on his opponents.
If I was playing with stox here and I had TT-, I could easily check the turn and fold the river if he bets, where I probabily would have called a turn bet with TT... or possibly bluff raised freeshowdown..

I have a feeling stox wouldnt do this with AQs to try and level his opponents and balance his play...

This is extremly dependent on your opponents... at a fishy table I think its gold... Or at a super tough table and youve played a hand somewhat tricky before (like doing the same with AK/AQ in this spot)

Altho it also depends on their PF standards.. if they are extremly loose preflop, you dont have too much reason to fear a king.

[ggbman]

I would start by betting the turn. If UTG calls and the button raises I fold right there. If there is one raise and a fold, i would call and check-fold the river. If there is one call, i would prolly bet/fold the river.

[celiholic]

in the moment of heat, i'll bet that 99% of the time, as turn out, checking and reevaluate is the best

i think i will cr if utg bet, and button calls, and fold to utg 3b. obvious fold when utg b, and button raise.

and reevaluate the river.. maybe b/f, c/c or c/f ui, depending on the action