How do you play this hand on the bubble?

[tigerite]

I'm sorry but anyone saying this is not a push is wrong.

When you are called you're a 60/40 dog? Great, in that case, they're folding 80%+ of their hands. Oh wait, you forgot that, didn't you?

[aaronk56]

Personally I think I would be pushing anything here that I would push with equal stack sizes. I think though I might not be loose enough when the stacks are about equal and I can be first in, however. If Shorty had 200 fewer chips, then I would tighten up considerably.

[PuppyToes]

you have a good point here. 2500 vs 3250 if i win which is closer than i thought at first. However, based on the other posts and analysis i believe if i push AND am called, I will be a somewhat dog and will probably go to the rail. If i would be a clear favorite on a call, (i have > AK), i agree PUSH. But i don't believe so. So I am currently in agreement with RiverDood that it is a fold/push situation and i think the decision would be heavily influenced by either taking the table image into consideration, or without an indication there, flipping a coin. (But so far the "clear pushes" vote have it.)

[RiverDood]

Ahh, but how much does picking up the blinds help you here?

Much less than usual. You're already barely ahead of the 4th stack if the two of you just fold to the felt. Gaining another 300 chips doesn't really change your staying power vs. him. . . . You creep a tiny bit closer to the big stacks, but you're still miles away.

I'm not arguing that this hand must be folded. My first instinct is to push anything this decent if I'm first in the pot. Even with the skewed stack size that may still be the right choice. I'm just saying that what's usually an insta-push becomes a much closer decision.

[PuppyToes]

Thanks again. you are right. i am grasping for straws here. push/fold. FWIW i am now thinking at this particular table I should have folded. I just looked at the hand history and noted the other short stack was the chip leader and lost it on a marginal hand with an over-agressive bluff. Instead of letting him lose his patience, i lost mine. But without somekind of read I do believe its a close decision. Thanks again...

[GtrHtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: All-in or fold (all-in is a no-brainer here)

Flop: Call. No way you should ever put more than 1/3 of your chips in the pot with any intention of folding. Besides, you're getting proper odds against the range of hands he bets here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against Kurn, HU fold. I should know. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[morphball]

Don't beat yourself up over the post-flop call. It was a clear call. Without knowing his cards, you have to give yourself 12 outs or a 45% chance of winning. If you knew, then you have 15 outs, and were the clear favorite from the start

I agree with everyone's advice about the preflop push, especially because you were OOP from the big stack, if you had position, then you may have wanted to call and then get your chips in after the flop--no matter what it was.

[11t]

I push preflop 100% of the time.

[amak316]

Hey, i realize this reply is way late and theres a strong chance no one is checking this thread anymore anyways lol, but i saw my name in the situation and thought i may as well get my two cents in. I think your problem here is not whether to push or to fold because both plays can be correct here depending on your goals in this sng. I think you have to realize why the min raise from UTG was such a poor play. This play does not succeed for a number of reasons. The first reason is that your pretty shortstacked relative to the blinds, you only have an M of about 4, which means you will be blinded off if you dont play a hand for 4 rounds.

Making the minimum raise in this position with this stack does not make sense as you are commiting 1/3 of your chips to this pot. Now you have to get inside your opponents heads. I am on the button with a mountain of chips, i see your minraise, and i see no need to get involved as whenever I see this minraise from a stack that cant afford to raise, i generally think they are being tricky, i have nothing invested in this hand, and i have no reason to get involved w/o a monster.

The SB has as few chips as you and just wants to desperately hang on, theres no way hes calling off 1/3 of his chips without a monster as the BB has to act behind him, and reraising all in is not an option for him because he then will give you great odds to call him with any two. Without AK, AQ or AA-TT he gone.

Now the BB has a very interesting proposition. there is now 700 in the pot and he only needs to put in 200 chips to see a flop. He is getting 1-2.5 to the pot which are beautttttiful pot odds. He knows you have a hand but to him your minraise is saying one of two things. it is either saying "OK, i know i dont have many chips, my hand is allright, but im not married to it, i certainly dont want to risk all my chips and go all in on the bubble and leave with nothing! Please sir just give me your blind and we will move on to the next hand" (most likely) The other thing your raise could be saying is "Hey buddy i have a monster and i want you in, i know my only moves were all in or fold, but this hand is too pretty to waste." Even with these two scenarios the pot odds are too good to pass up, and his large stack gives him room for error of judgement. He calls. Now that hes decided to call he has two moves, if the flop comes out with high cards ie A K x he is ready to fold, as that hits your most likely holdings. However i have no doubt he is ready to push all in on any flop containing all low cards, or any flop pairing his five. If the flop gives him top pair he will likely check and let you do the continuation all in for him. The five hit, he pushed at the rest as they say is history.

That being said you did mention that this min raise was surprisingly effective at this table. To understand that you have to realize the conditions the minraise worked in. If I am minraising with a huge stack the guy that is second in chips has no reason to get involved, because he has no margin for error against me because the slightest mistep and BAM he bubbles. The two other stacks cant afford to call my minraise, and reraising all in is no good for them either because wed have odds to call with any non dominated holding. This means that both me and the other big stack have no problem executing the min raise. this is not necessarily the best move for the big stacks, yet it is managable. For the tiny stack it makes no sense against the other big ones.

As i said in the beginning, between push and fold its a tossup, likely here id go all in, because hey when im short stacked i believe in aggression, All ins are hard to call with weak holdings. I know if i am pushing alot of hands (id push about 1/4th of my hands at 4 M) I may bubble a decent amount, but i find your ROI% is greatly increased by the times you come back and win. An additional benefit is if you steal two sets of blinds you will find the other short stack verrry pressured to make moves and take him out of his comfort zone if he can never find his way into the pot.

Now if this is not your style and youd rather blind your way into the 90$ 3rd place finish (im assuming this is a 50$ sng) thats fine toss it. Its all a matter of preference, but this post should help illustrate why the minraise was wrong).

Sorry this took so long to explain, correct me if you feel i messed up with my explanation

Amak316

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Ahh, but how much does picking up the blinds help you here?


[/ QUOTE ]

It helps you a whole lot actually. increasing your stack by 25% is very nice. Now if you fold through the blinds, then you'll still have what you had before this hand... if you fold here the blinds will eat up a large part of your stack. ATs is a very big hand 4 handed also. As tiger pointed out, if you're going to be a dog when called, that GREAT. If you're a 60:40 dog when called, you take it down 80%+. So you'll still only bust just over 10% of the time by pushing.

Also, unless the 4th guy is very bad, he won't allow both of you to just "fold to the felt". He'll be pushing very soon, and likely will pick up the blinds and pass you up. You really need to push while you still have FE here, esp since you have a solid hand too.

Hahah. ooops, didn't realize this thread was so old, just saw it at the top. oh well.

Btw, amak, you had some good analysis in there... but I folding here is losing a LOT of $$$. Also, i'm not so sure your chances of 3rd will go up much, if at all by folding here. You'll still need some luck even if you fold this.