ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog

[shant]

I have set aside $2000 to be a bankroll for my sports gambling.

I know very little about sports gambling, and not so much about soccer either. I know the basics enough to know how to place bets etc, but I still will most likely lose 2 g's and you guys can laugh at me while I do it. Obviously the goal is to win money though, hopefully.

OK, so I've already taken $350 and placed bets on 7 teams to win their groups in the first round. Here are those bets:

Germany to win Group A - $50 to win $19.49
England to win Group B - $50 to win $34.24
Argentina to win Group C - $51 to win $62.22
Portugal to win Group D - $50 to win $42.37
Italy to win Group E - $50.85 to win $46.44
France to win Group G - $50 to win $20
Spain to win Group H - $51 to win $29.15

I also made a bet on tommorrow's opener and my time spent living in Costa Rica and watching Saprissa play obviously swayed my bet here to -EV land:

Costa Rica 9-June-2006 9:00 AM PST
Spread 1.5 and 2 for Game -112
Risking 56.00 to Win 50.00 USD

I'm also not exacly sure what that bet means, but I'll find out tommorrow postgame!

Hopefully you all enjoy following along as I aim for ROBUSTO.

Vegas coming this weekend with large bets being placed. Updates soon.


Current Bankroll: $1591.15

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

your group e bet is very -ev imo

[A Ninja]

[ QUOTE ]
your group e bet is very -ev imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Who the hell else will win?

[mason55]

czh

[rockrokok]

By no means do I intent to be a know-it-all, a wiseass or something similar, but betting on the favourites is always a mistake when gambling.
The only way to make money in sports gambling is to spot the surprises, where the bookies have set the odds too high - trust they won't make that mistake with Brazil or Germany or something...

Just a piece of advice - won't even cost you 2k [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
betting on the favourites is always a mistake when gambling.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it isn't. Sometimes it's a good bet. "Never bet the favorite" is too absolute to be the optimal plan.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
your group G bet is very -ev imo

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jehaim]

[ QUOTE ]
your group C bet is very -ev imo

[/ QUOTE ]

<font color="orange">COACH = MARCO VAN BASTEN = SHIP IT!! </font>

[brianpower]

Im pretty sure all the bets are -EV. Its possible the bookmaker offered overly generous odds on one of the group favorites. but 6? not a chance. Thats how bookmakers make thier money.

[kitaristi0]

Betting on the favourites will never get you anywhere.