ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

I have set aside $2000 to be a bankroll for my sports gambling.

I know very little about sports gambling, and not so much about soccer either. I know the basics enough to know how to place bets etc, but I still will most likely lose 2 g's and you guys can laugh at me while I do it. Obviously the goal is to win money though, hopefully.

OK, so I've already taken $350 and placed bets on 7 teams to win their groups in the first round. Here are those bets:

Germany to win Group A - $50 to win $19.49
England to win Group B - $50 to win $34.24
Argentina to win Group C - $51 to win $62.22
Portugal to win Group D - $50 to win $42.37
Italy to win Group E - $50.85 to win $46.44
France to win Group G - $50 to win $20
Spain to win Group H - $51 to win $29.15

I also made a bet on tommorrow's opener and my time spent living in Costa Rica and watching Saprissa play obviously swayed my bet here to -EV land:

Costa Rica 9-June-2006 9:00 AM PST
Spread 1.5 and 2 for Game -112
Risking 56.00 to Win 50.00 USD

I'm also not exacly sure what that bet means, but I'll find out tommorrow postgame!

Hopefully you all enjoy following along as I aim for ROBUSTO.

Vegas coming this weekend with large bets being placed. Updates soon.


Current Bankroll: $1591.15

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

your group e bet is very -ev imo

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

[ QUOTE ]
your group e bet is very -ev imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Who the hell else will win?

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

czh

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

[ QUOTE ]
your group G bet is very -ev imo

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

Im pretty sure all the bets are -EV. Its possible the bookmaker offered overly generous odds on one of the group favorites. but 6? not a chance. Thats how bookmakers make thier money.

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

Betting on the favourites will never get you anywhere.

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

I think you need to exercise better game selection. The bookies study this crap 24 hours a day and are unlikely to offer you any bargains, and so I doubt that you're getting much value out of all 7 bets, maybe only 1 or 2. You'll never get any value out of England since every Englishman thinks we're going to win and has had a bet on them and so the bookies will move the lines. I think you already know this but I'll remind you anyway.

You could try specialising in the under/over market and check bbc.co.uk every hour for key injuries to goalies, playmakers and strikers and bet before the bookies adjust their lines.

good luck

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

There is a song on the web that will make you laugh. It's called 'Not addicted' by 'the streets' and it's all about a mans descent into football betting. Check it out.

Re: ROBUSTO or BUSTO: World Cup Betting Blog
 

brazil?