#11
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades"
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#12
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
[ QUOTE ]
i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades" [/ QUOTE ] You're going to jam 16k into a 9k pot? You realize you have to be ahead something like 75% of the time for this to be profitable. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.181% 47.20% 01.98% 44863 1879.00 { Kh9d } Hand 1: 50.819% 48.84% 01.98% 46419 1879.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo } I don't think you get 25% FE magically here against a range that crushes yours. |
#13
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
[ QUOTE ]
i just shove it in on the flop i hit my hand i put alot in i gotta go with it. yes im going to get called by better kings sometimes but ive really given bad odds to a spade and [b[im folding weaker spades who might say "he's got the ace of spades"[/b] [/ QUOTE ] Furthermore, you don't want to fold out spades. You want them to call getting the wrong odds. If you shove, you're making it very easy for your opponent to play perfectly. |
#14
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
MJ,
Your final analysis is correct (shoving the flop is really bad and is typical of those afflicted with 'I am nervous making tough decisions so I am going to put my chips into the middle because its easiest' syndrome). Unfortunately you have two major errors in your calculations: 1) You either assume that either we have 0% fold equity or you simply forgot to account for the chips gained when the villain folds. Since the villain folds sometimes (oftentimes) we need less than 50% equity when called for a shove to be +cEV and 2) Your calling range is way off You also made a major error in logic: We should not make decisions because they are +cEV. We should make decisions because they are maxEV. Shoving here is +cEV... but it isn't even close to being the best way to play the hand. |
#15
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
That's not the calling range, that's the pre-flop calling range.
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#16
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Re: Deep in $4.40 PS 180-man - Steal attempt faces difficult decision
I don't normally try stealing against 2 players, and don't think this hand is good enough for a value raise pre flop so I would check.
On the flop you have 17k behind with 10k in the pot, for me if you make any 1/2 pot size bet or more and you are pot committed. I check, and fold to a strong bet/AI. If he bets weak (1/2 pot or less) I check raise AI. As played, on the turn you're pot comitted but WA/WB, just get it all in. |
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