2/4 Bellagio vs. Liz

[mike l.]

"she either has 99,77, 55, or 33."

she can easily have 64, or even 86. she played loose from the blinds all the times i played with her.

[PokerBob]

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on the turn it was clear that she has a set

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i assumed ian was folding the river UI

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These kind of responses are why less and less really strong players post in this forum.


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i doubt that.

[Mig]

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obviously fold to her river 3 bet.

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I don't think it's such a clear cut fold. If she had a hand like 97s she probably think the only way for her to win the pot is by betting the river. It's pretty clear to all of us that Ian has a big PP here. After Ian raise the river, unless she is a huge str8 forward nit and won't ever get tricky with a busted 2 pairs, this river is a close call imo. She is probably aware of the "raise and fold to a 3 bet" line that disciplined players like Ian are able to make. I mean I could play 97s like that myself when I'm aware the other guy is able to fold an over pair against a strong line like that. She only has to do that 1 out of 17 times which is fairly possible at the level he is playing at... I can tell you for sure that folding against someone like me every time would be a mistake here.

[Ian J]

Mig,

This was somewhat my thinking when playing the hand, along with [censored] let me see what she has. After thinking about it, I just don't know if she's that good. Also, she 3 bet pretty quickly and thoughtlessly. Man I played so so bad this hand, no wonder I have trouble live.

She had 77.

[mike l.]

"I don't think it's such a clear cut fold."

i think youre really overthinking things here. in my experience liz is not as sophisticated a player as you are giving her credit for here.

[emerson]

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Hi,

Really bad 2/4 that started recently Liz isn't playing as crazy as everyone believes she always does. I actually think she plays ok. Anyway, on to the hand.

John Myung limps UTG 7 handed. He's pretty good and I don't know what this means but I have JJ in CO so I'm raising it up. Liz calls in the blind and John calls.

Flop 953 rainbow check to me I bet Liz c/r's, John calls and I 3 bet it they both call. Turn 7 Liz c/r me again and I call John folded to c/r. River 5 Liz bets I raise and she 3 bets. Can I ever win?

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I'm with you right up to the point that you raise on the river? At what point do you think that she probably has a very big pocket pair or a set?

[cdlarmore]

You have to strong of a hand to ditch and you need to showdown here, call the river, our raise spews...
cdl

[PokerBob]

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what do people think about folding the river UI (board doesnt pair low card, or river jack obviously) given the action and fact OP says she was playing somewhat normal? i suppose this may just be criminal, but just a thought.



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i assumed ian was folding the river UI, but the 5 counterfeits 97s. i can't imagine that we are winning, unless liz thinks ian will 3bet the flop with 88 or overcards.

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He should definitely 3 bet the flop with those hands sometimes. We absolutely should be going to showdown unimproved, just not for 3 bets.


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why are we 3betting overs on this basically drawless board vs. 2 opponents?

[worm33]

Ian,

I'm sure you have realized this by now but the river raise just lets her play so correctly against you. Just go win 4 million, you will forget about this hand quickly.

[mtgordon]

You could raise the flop to try and get 2 shots at hitting your overcards to win with 1 pair.