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#71
10-26-2007, 02:27 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
anyone know vegas books that would have a line posted on brady breaking the TD record? even better if you know the lines on yes/no.
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#73
10-26-2007, 02:44 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
crock, what's your estimate of the fair odds on the yes/no? [/ QUOTE ] quid pro quo. i get books, you get estimates.
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#75
10-26-2007, 03:55 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
I'm not necessarily trying to strictly feed off of others' information. I contribute when possible (rarely possible in sports betting - I'm on 2+2 for poker), but when someone is in the sharing mood, I'm certainly looking to hear what they have to say.
I think for every person like me that asks a question seeking information, there are probably at least 20 people who read this forum without ever posting. It's unfair to single someone out as a leecher on a forum like this when the lurkers far outweigh the contributors. You're basically calling out 95% of 2+2 that are here to read/learn, with little to contribute (yet). And to answer your question - I actually "sit all day" contributing in the uNL strat forum.
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#76
10-27-2007, 02:46 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not necessarily trying to strictly feed off of others' information. I contribute when possible (rarely possible in sports betting - I'm on 2+2 for poker), but when someone is in the sharing mood, I'm certainly looking to hear what they have to say. I think for every person like me that asks a question seeking information, there are probably at least 20 people who read this forum without ever posting. It's unfair to single someone out as a leecher on a forum like this when the lurkers far outweigh the contributors. You're basically calling out 95% of 2+2 that are here to read/learn, with little to contribute (yet). And to answer your question - I actually "sit all day" contributing in the uNL strat forum. [/ QUOTE ] welcome to the sports betting forum dude lol
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#77
10-27-2007, 07:30 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Pinny has BOS o5.5 at +108 and you can get u5.5 -105 at Bodog. The props that I like based on my numbers and simulations are:
BOS 1st inning Ks thrown -185 BOS first HR -150 Fogg o5 K+BB -120 No team scores over 3.5 runs in a single inning -155 All at 5dimes EDIT: the number just moved and here is another play as at 5dimes: BOS scores first -150
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#79
10-28-2007, 07:56 AM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
playoff odds blog now has a post on how the WS line stacks up to the individual game lines.
re: brady prop, i estimate he will play the equivalent of about eight full games at a 40 TD pace for a full season. if anything, those numbers seem generous to me. if we model this as a poisson distribution with a mean of 20, he hits the under 72.1% of the time. sportsbook.com is offering +170 on the under, so this looks like free money to me. edit: this line is also arb city with the over at matchbook or wsex.
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