crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

the title of the thread means that i'll post plays when i have no further use in keeping them secret; i.e. i've hit my wagering limits at the books offering good lines, or ran out of cash to place bets at B&M books.

first one is a freebie: take colorado +195 for game 1 and boston -230 to win the Series. each is +EV on its own IMO, and the combination reduces risk considerably. as i said a few weeks ago about another combo bet, this is a great way to start your gambling hedge fund.

i'll be on a plane to vegas in a few hours and hopefully hitting the books shortly after landing, so expect a report tonight on what's out there.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Sox -227 at SIA, $550 max. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Sox -227 at SIA, $550 max. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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They're -220 at sportsbook

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

SIA is the only poorly-rated [formerly B-rated] book I have money left at. You should avoid SB like the plague.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

FWIW, you can get +195 at 5Dimes and -230 at Bodog. I'm sure there are other places with similar/better prices, but for anyone too lazy to look...

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Does anyone have a recommendation for how to allocate a given portion of their bankroll over these two bets? (i.e., you want to bet $X total, put Z%*X on Colorado to win game 1 and (100%-Z%)*X on Boston winning the series).

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Colorado is only +175 for game 1 on Bodog [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

crockpot,

What are your estimated game lines for this series? King Yao has given his guesstimates as Game 1 66.0%, Game 2 63.0%, Game 3 54.0%, Game 4 50.0%, Game 5 58.0%, Game 6 63.0%, and Game 7 62.0%. These equate to a 70% series win for BOS, which is close to the observed market price.

Your odds seem to be giving BOS a lower probability of winning Game 1 but a higher probability of winning Game 4. I'm curious where else you differ to get a higher series win percentage for BOS.

Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
 

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Colorado +200 on Matchbook. Comes out to +196 after the fee.

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It's actually better than that because Matchbook has reduced all commissions to 1% for baseball this post-season.