Sabermetric MLB Picks - September

[dudeimstoked]

Heat check...
Tuesday Results
5-1-0 (+13.30 units)

Yep, still on fire.

[dudeimstoked]

Wednesday MLB
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +215 for 1st 5 Innings (2.5)
St Louis Cardinals +169 for 1st 5 Innings (2.5)
Pittsburgh +117 (1.5)
Los Angeles (N) -116
Minnesota -126 (3)
Washington +186 (2)

[dudeimstoked]

I'm really happy with the way i've been doing recently and my current ytd record so i may shut it down at the end of this week. id prefer not to go through my 30 unit downswing at the end of the season.

[dudeimstoked]

Wednesday Results
3-3-0 (+2.25 units)

[dudeimstoked]

I am busy all day Thursday so there will not be any plays. Friday is up in the air, but there may not be any for then either.

[MrFeelNothin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm really happy with the way i've been doing recently and my current ytd record so i may shut it down at the end of this week. id prefer not to go through my 30 unit downswing at the end of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sunday is the last day of the season.

Also, if you believe you are +EV, why would you quit early out of fear of a downswing?

[dudeimstoked]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm really happy with the way i've been doing recently and my current ytd record so i may shut it down at the end of this week. id prefer not to go through my 30 unit downswing at the end of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sunday is the last day of the season.

Also, if you believe you are +EV, why would you quit early out of fear of a downswing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well there are a few reasons I'm considering stopping.
1. With some of the playoff races locked up or teams already eliminated, it is too hard to predict their starting lineups and they have little motivation to win.
2. I'm not 100% sure my system is +EV. Just because I've had a hot run doesnt mean that it is +EV, as shown by my Aug record.
3. Handicapping has been tiring. Time for a break and to start working on basketball.

I hope you guys caught onto my upswing. I should have picks tomorrow morning.

[TomG]

You finished the season in the green after a massive sample size. That's an impressive accomplishment. I've been considering building a NBA Robot based upon Michael Murray's NBA Toolbox articles. I'll send you a PM if/when I get started on it.

[dudeimstoked]

Thanks Tom,
I'll consider myself +EV if I'm able to complete a full season of mlb at a +ROI.
I'm working on a basketball system also, but we'll see how that goes.

[Thremp]

I'm probably gonna hold off on NBA and work on a WNBA model. Should be atleast a little easier to beat and get my feet wet. Probably a huge -EV waste of my time though unless I turn out to just be a preternatural talent (unlikely).