Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Hey everyone,
This thread will be for September MLB and is a continuation of my other thread found here: Thread

All of my picks are based off of statistical analysis of the hitters and pitchers. I do not pay attention to hot streaks, trends, when a team is "due" or anything of that nature.

I encourage questions and comments in the thread, it shows that I'm not completely wasting my time by posting my picks.

My model is based a lot off of Michael Murray's Book, Betting Baseball 2007, but in my opinion he has an imperfect way of determining power ratings for teams, so I am using a different variation of it. I also use different statistics to compute the pitching strength of the starting pitchers.

All of my lines will come off of Betjm, 5Dimes, or Bodog because they are widely available to all and as of now they are the only places where I have accounts and they also offer XML line feeds.

Picks will be posted on my website, www.puresabermetrics.com first.

I will then post the picks in this thread later that night so I'm not making 3 or 4 posts with plays in it.
I have incorporated a small amount of line shopping into my spreadsheet with BetJM and 5Dimes so I will show where I found the line on my website only (I don't want to worry about the forum rules and all that crap in this thread). The main problem here being that Betjm puts lines up around 12pm PST and 5Dimes much later, so I imagine that most of the lines will be from BetJM.

I will post results of the day daily and keep YTD statistics. I started publicly posting around the All-Star break, so any big up or down day greatly influences the ROI.

Current Record:
July: 58-63-1 (+3.26 units; ROI: 2.20%)
Aug: 49-63-0 (-15.58 units; ROI: -9.20%)
YTD: 110-128-1 (-12.24 units; ROI: -3.76%)

Follow these picks at your own risk.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday MLB
Houston Astros +160 for Game
Texas Rangers +240 for Game
San Francisco Giants +106 for Game (1.5)
Cincinnati Reds +195 for 1st 5 Innings
Baltimore Orioles +175 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Texas Rangers +225 for 1st 5 Innings [5Dimes]

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Saturday Results
2-4-0 (-0.85 units)

Texas in the 9th almost gave me a heart attack.
Too bad on Cincinnati.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday MLB
Florida Marlins +112 for Game (2)
Cincinnati Reds +128 for Game (2)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +265 for Game (1.5)
Minnesota Twins -107 for Game (2)
Baltimore Orioles +150 for 1st 5 Innings (2)
Chicago White Sox +178 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +255 for 1st 5 Innings
Cincinnati Reds +120 for 1st 5 Innings (1.5)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Sunday Results
3-3-2 (+2.74 units)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday MLB
San Francisco Giants +130 for Game
Atlanta Braves +101 for Game (1.5)
New York Mets +115 for Game (2.5)
Oakland Athletics +146 for Game

The NYM play is actually a 3.5 unit play, but I scaled it back because Pedro Martinez is coming off of the DL and they are planning on limiting his pitching time.

Minnesota Twins -125 for Game
Baltimore Orioles +164 for Game (1.5)
Oakland Athletics +130 for 1st 5 Innings
Pittsburgh Pirates +115 for 1st 5 Innings (2)

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Picks will be up late tonight. Power outage has my site down and all sorts of good stuff.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Monday Results
3-5-0 (+0.94 units)

Site (www.PureSabermetrics.com) is up and running again.

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday MLB
Toronto Blue Jays +133 for Game (1.5)
Seattle Mariners +230 for Game (1.5)
Florida Marlins +112 for Game (1.5)
San Francisco Giants -112 for Game (3)
Chicago White Sox +168 for 1st 5 Innings
Florida Marlins +108 for 1st 5 Innings

Re: Sabermetric MLB Picks - September
 

Tuesday Results
2-4-0 (-5.10 units)
I cannot believe today. Got absolutely worked by the bullpens. I can’t believe how horrible the bullpens were today. Can’t believe it…