2/4 i make a ridiculous fold

[Melchiades]

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Seems like a beautifull one to do it on. What am I missing?

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ur missing the fact that 13/10 ubernits DONT THINK THIS WAY OTHERWISE THEY WOULDNT BE 13/10 UBERNITS

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He is an ubernit with 22 aggro factor though. 22 aggro factor over 400 hands means he raises a ton postflop, and more or less never calls. He might very well raise 88/66 here to see if you wiffed, or fold out anything below a king. Why do people look at preflop stats and assume that just because he only raises 10% preflop he is incapable of making any moves.

Call flop and shut down if it looks like he wants to play a big pot on the turn.

[Trix]

It´s means his bet+raise/call is 22, that can still consist of 21 cont bets, one valueraise, one slowplay and 10000 folds.
It basicly means that he doesn´t CALL much..

As for the hand, I think folding or calling and folding turn is best. I dont think getting all the money in here is good vs a player that tight without a read on his postflop bluffing patterns.

[Melchiades]

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It´s means his bet+raise/call is 22, that can still consist of 21 cont bets, one valueraise, one slowplay and 10000 folds.
It basicly means that he doesn´t CALL much..

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I'm not advocating getting all in here, just calling to see a turn. If he still looks like he wants lots of money in the pot, I let it go.

The fact that he never calls, only folds or raises makes his raise less strong to me. Since I don't expect him to fold 88-QQ on this flop facing a c-bet, and he apparently never just calls.

[Novles]

Tokyo,

I'd still like to know why you bet the flop if you are folding to a raise. The guy is never just calling a c-bet.

[jeffnc]

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lol, I agree, if you fold this in a 6-max game, you're very easily exploitable, I dont see how you can fold on the flop.

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It's not about being exploitable, it's about this specific hand when villain doesn't know what you have. If villain plays this way over a large hand range (which we haven't seem him do) then obviously we wouldn't fold all the time.

You could just as easily say you're exploitable if you call here all the time.

[jeffnc]

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This guy has an aggression factor of 22? I don't care if its a smallish sample size, it's still an aggression factor of 22! Seems like he has played raise or fold poker every hand you have seen him play.

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Well how often do you see players this aggressive playing only 13% of their hands?

[Overfloater]

I just skimmed this thread, and it seems like the case that a lot of you are putting villain squarely on a set. You do realize villain can only flop a set 1/8 times right? Given that, we should definitely be felting this everytime since we are ahead 7/8 times. I did a quick ev calc as follows:

AA vs set = -100bb (disregard redraw because we have 2 outs , so this is a rough estimate only)
aa vs nonset = +700bb


[-100]+[+700] = +600bb

Felting aa here has a positive ev of +600bb

[Melchiades]

To all the guys saying easy fold. What do you expect vilalin to do whenever he doesnt flop a set with a pocketpair. Always fold? Every single time? He folds 44-66/88-QQ (though he prolly reraises some of those preflop) here? Even on flops like this where a raise folds out 90%+ of heroes hands?

Yes he is tight. But I think you all get blinded by the fact that he is 13/10 preflop.

[Neuman101]

It looks like this has been touched upon, but if your are going to throw this hand to any resistance, maybe u should check the flop. I think bet folding here is too weak/tight as a default play. He could very easily have 333/777 but i still dont like it...would he have reraised AK preflop? Would he call with KQ preflop? Have you been very aggressive and is there a chance he is making a stand/playing back at you? I know i will raise with air here a lot because you will have middle pair a lot/AQ/AJ and will simply have to fold...if i thought my opponents would fold AA, i would raise Q xx and K xx boards every time...

[Big_Jim]

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I just skimmed this thread, and it seems like the case that a lot of you are putting villain squarely on a set. You do realize villain can only flop a set 1/8 times right? Given that, we should definitely be felting this everytime since we are ahead 7/8 times. I did a quick ev calc as follows:

AA vs set = -100bb (disregard redraw because we have 2 outs , so this is a rough estimate only)
aa vs nonset = +700bb


[-100]+[+700] = +600bb

Felting aa here has a positive ev of +600bb

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Is this serious? If so, it is hugely flawed.

If not, LOL, good one.