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#52
06-20-2007, 07:43 AM
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Re: Stud 8 open trips vs. John Juanda
[ QUOTE ]
I almost immediately said that you need to check and probably fold to a bet. [/ QUOTE ] That's [censored] sick. Absolutely sick. (And definitely not right in this pot.) Juanda will raise any low and any better hands on the end if you bet, and he'll fold every hand that loses to trips. The fact that posters like Nate will fold to Juanda's raise on seventh should make it very obvious that bet/fold cannot be right. The river action in Stud is much different than Hold 'em. The concept of "value betting" is much different, and often applied very incorrectly by Hold 'em players. This is one case that qualifies. There is absolutely no value in a bet since Juanda will raise all better hands plus hands that get half and will simply fold all other hands. Therefore, the correct action cannot be to bet. So you check. Juanda may now think you missed filling up and may bet for value or as a bluff. You win a fraction of a bet here since he's going to be betting his worse hands more often than he is overfull. However, is there value in a check/raise? Juanda calls with all non-made low hands, raises with all low-qualifing straights, and raises with all overfulls. He cannot call with trip sevens. Therefore, the hands he calls with have no value against your obvious range on the river, so check/raise cannot be right. The correct action is check/call. 
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#54
06-20-2007, 08:46 AM
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Re: Stud 8 open trips vs. John Juanda
check call imo, and rly standard. juanda is never folding a low, and sometimes he catches a better full house. ur showing a 333, after all. betting is way too thin imo, and allows juanda to play more perfectly (since i highly doubt he is calling with a completed flush and he certainly isnt calling with anything worse than trips, and hes just flattig a riverbet with better trips).
and checkfolding is just absurd, its fixed limit and he has a boat high against a pair up showing.
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#56
06-20-2007, 01:48 PM
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Re: Stud 8 open trips vs. John Juanda
There is a big difference between this and the TOP hand. In TOP, you are playing your board, and there are no hole cards you can have that would give you something better than what you are showing, i.e. quads - so your hand is basically face up.
If you bet with open trips, you could be value betting a full house, or you could be bluffing with "just" trips to represent a full house and get a fold from bigger trips, a straight or flush (and good luck with that). In stud/8 there are more possibilities, as you can also have a low. That doesn't necessarily mean it is right to bet, but if it is wrong, it isn't for the same reason as the TOP example.
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