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#52
10-25-2007, 04:40 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Crock (or anyone else),
Thanks. One more for you to look at, if possible. Todd Helton to hit an extra base hit in tonight's game, the No is at -130 at VIP (-120 earlier). I calculated a fair line of over -150... 
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#53
10-25-2007, 05:33 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
Wow my real quick calculation says -127 is the line. But my calculation really depends on what you think his contact rate against Schilling will be. Helton strikes out rarely and Schilling does not strike out alot of guys. Schilling walks really few guys, but Helton walks alot. If you assume a low walk rate in these at bats Helton is putting hte ball in play a huge percentage of the time. But if you think Helton can draw a walk a larger percentage of the time the contact rate decreases and this helps your side.
Then I calculated he extra base hit per ball in play. Mmost of Helton's homeruns and lots of his doubles came against righties. Also Helton hit tons of doubles this year and no ball park inflates doubles more than Fenway. All of this gave him a pretty high extra base hits per ball in play, his huge LD% helps here too. When I put this all together with a distribution of expected numbers of plate apperances I would not play this at -130. But that is just my math. You have your math, Crock has his math and Karl Rove has the math.
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#56
10-25-2007, 07:30 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
Wow my real quick calculation says -127 is the line. But my calculation really depends on what you think his contact rate against Schilling will be. Helton strikes out rarely and Schilling does not strike out alot of guys. Schilling walks really few guys, but Helton walks alot. If you assume a low walk rate in these at bats Helton is putting hte ball in play a huge percentage of the time. But if you think Helton can draw a walk a larger percentage of the time the contact rate decreases and this helps your side. Then I calculated he extra base hit per ball in play. Mmost of Helton's homeruns and lots of his doubles came against righties. Also Helton hit tons of doubles this year and no ball park inflates doubles more than Fenway. All of this gave him a pretty high extra base hits per ball in play, his huge LD% helps here too. When I put this all together with a distribution of expected numbers of plate apperances I would not play this at -130. But that is just my math. You have your math, Crock has his math and Karl Rove has the math. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for your input. I got in at -120, so at least there's still some value according to your calculation. My calculation was a very rough estimate...I estimated Helton's expected number of extra base hits by (2007 2B+3B+HR) / (2007 PA) * 5, and then used Poisson. I looked at various Helton splits too (home/away, lefty/righty), and nothing stood out that scared me away.
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#57
10-25-2007, 07:51 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of the under 5.5 +110 Red Sox runs on Bodog? It's arb-able with over 5.5 -105 on Pinny. [/ QUOTE ] yeah I would think that the Bodog side had the value. It is ddown to u5.5 +105, I think it still has value there. Also I think bodog's col line has value it is u4.5 -105 while pinny has o4 -116, u4 +100. I think the 4 is worth the eleven cents (it is if you assume Poisson distribution of run scored).
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#58
10-25-2007, 07:54 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Wow my real quick calculation says -127 is the line. But my calculation really depends on what you think his contact rate against Schilling will be. Helton strikes out rarely and Schilling does not strike out alot of guys. Schilling walks really few guys, but Helton walks alot. If you assume a low walk rate in these at bats Helton is putting hte ball in play a huge percentage of the time. But if you think Helton can draw a walk a larger percentage of the time the contact rate decreases and this helps your side. Then I calculated he extra base hit per ball in play. Mmost of Helton's homeruns and lots of his doubles came against righties. Also Helton hit tons of doubles this year and no ball park inflates doubles more than Fenway. All of this gave him a pretty high extra base hits per ball in play, his huge LD% helps here too. When I put this all together with a distribution of expected numbers of plate apperances I would not play this at -130. But that is just my math. You have your math, Crock has his math and Karl Rove has the math. [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for your input. I got in at -120, so at least there's still some value according to your calculation. My calculation was a very rough estimate...I estimated Helton's expected number of extra base hits by (2007 2B+3B+HR) / (2007 PA) * 5, and then used Poisson. I looked at various Helton splits too (home/away, lefty/righty), and nothing stood out that scared me away. [/ QUOTE ] yeah I think that the three things that stuck out in my mind were, 16 of his 17 HR were against RHPs, he has lots of 2Bs and fenway inflates those like crazy, and with a low walk rate pitcher and his low K rate he could have a really high percentage of his PAs be balls in play. But if you got -120 I think that is good. I think it would be better to estimate his numbers of PAs in the game and then use the binomial distrubtion rather than the Poisson in this case. But it probably works out to being pretty close.
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#60
10-25-2007, 08:36 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s \"i ran out of cash/hit my limits\" WS props thread
I bet Helton +125 vs Youkilis (H+R+RBI)
Any thoughts? Also Helton +130 vs Many Holliday +105 vs Youkilis Holliday +130 vs Many
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