AQ with interesting flop 4/180

[alwardc4]

Ok, if we check/call then check/fold OR lead/fold to raise on flop then we are down to about 2600 in chips.

If hero leads/reraise OR crais this flop then hero only needs to win a showdown somewhere around 35-40% to make this play better than a cautious play that leaves us around 2600 in chips.

Lets look at the posters original line. If hero reraises allin there is probably about 5-10% of villain folding. Throw that in with winning a showdown 35-40% of the time and its the best play. Unless you don't think hero is winning the showdown that often. Which is possible I guess.

Lets say a push leaves this
5% chance of 5450 in chips
40% chance of 7230 in chips
55% chance of busto

I think this is better than 100% chance of 2700 in chips.

The argument against is the villain's range. If you think his range is so tight to the point where a reraise allin loses something like 70% of the time then fine. I am in agreement with ya'll. I like check/ call and possibly check /fold on turn.