2/4 Black Tens

[Pominos]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know what your opponents held? Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

No idea I'm afraid

[busted]

[ QUOTE ]
The point I'm making is, to maximize the chance of knocking CO off a better hand, you need to bet the turn. Will it knock him off? Maybe not.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Nope. But I like betting out on the turn a LOT more.


[/ QUOTE ]
I definitely agree that the only mistake the OP made was not betting out on the turn. The goal of betting on the turn is to protect your made hand and try to drive opponents out.

With this huge pot, the only objective is to win it by playing aggressively. If opponents are on draws, you want to keep the pressure on and make them consider if they want to continue drawing -- checking on the turn doesn't do this, while betting does.

Obviously, if you can get one opponent to fold, your chances of winning a 3-way pot are better than a 4-way pot. If you get a drawing hand to fold, you eliminate the possibility of them hitting the draw on the river. If a person with a hand better than hero's folds, it's a major coup.

IMO, with this type of HUGE pot, the highest EV+ strategy is to play as aggressively as possible, especially at this limit level. Even if you go UI to a SD, you have a chance to win this very large pot with hero's overpair.

[busted]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree that the turn play you suggest works. For one thing CO knows you don't have an ace. For another thing he has a heart half of the time. And more importantly and definitely something you seem to be overlooking...THIS POT IS 4-HANDED. It does you no good to fold a 2nd best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
Uh, if an opponent folds their hand, and if their hand was worse than hero's hand, then YES you're right that "It does you no good to fold a 2nd best hand." However, during the play of the hand, I think you would agree that there's a lot of uncertainty about who has the winning hand at any point during the hand.

The goal of betting on the turn is to keep the pressure on and force opponents to re-think how strong their hands are, and especially whether they should fold rather than continuing to put money in the pot.

It's obvious that hero's chances of winning this very large pot are enhanced if someone folds and you go to a 3-way pot rather than a 4-way pot. But the thing I find interesting is the high proportion of persons who are willing to concede that one of hero's opponents must have a better hand than hero's UI hand (or that hero has virtually no chance at SD unless he improves significantly).

We're talking complex probabilities here. Two macro principles (thank you Miller's magazine article): (1) you should never fold a large pot if you have a chance to win it, and (2) you should usually play aggressively in large pots for hand protection when you have a made hand.

IMO, these 2 macro principles trump any "micro analysis." And I think hero's hand is within a reasonable range where (1) it's definitely not the nuts, but (2) I'm not convinced that it does NOT have a chance to win this pot. Someone please convince me that it doesn't have a chance to win.

Under these conditions, you play according to the 2 macro principles (and save yourself a lot of time and soul searching related to the "micro analysis").

[psuasskicker]

FWIW, I think the statement that it does you no good to fold a hand that currently doesn't have you beat (which I didn't see till this last post quoted it) is foolish. This pot is massive. You want it. You want to maximize your chances to win it. You don't mind if someone calls with a weaker hand that gives you extra equity. But it's a disaster to allow a hand like QJ to get a free card to beat you in this big a pot.

- C -

[busted]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I think the statement that it does you no good to fold a hand that currently doesn't have you beat (which I didn't see till this last post quoted it) is foolish. This pot is massive. You want it. You want to maximize your chances to win it. You don't mind if someone calls with a weaker hand that gives you extra equity. But it's a disaster to allow a hand like QJ to get a free card to beat you in this big a pot.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree 100%. By not betting the turn, you give your 3 opponents infinite odds on a free card on the river. If they hit a Q or J, you're dead. This is just another reason to bet the turn, in addition to the other reasons identified above.

[chief444]

I think it's obvious that I meant it does no good if your hand is not best.