LETS GET SOME DISCUSSION... JJ and my pre and post flop play

[kaz2107]

ok ill try to give a few of my thoughts now that i am recomposed.

i put the sbs preflop range at sumtin like 99+ AJs+ and AQo+ and then maybe like 4 or 5 random hands like suited connectors or midd pps. so against that rainge im like 55% against him but with the reasonable utg player in the hand i obv cant look to bloat the pot n e more then it already is.

now on the flop it is about as good as i can expect obv. and since villian is aggro i expect him to bet aa flop like this with prolly 90% of his range. prolly the top 1 or 2 hands dont and tha bottom one or two wont always either. the thing that makes this hand tough is my raise size. if i woulda made it like 19ish it would give me slightly better pot odds when sb shoves. the problem with this idea is if utg shoves i am toast and will have to fold thus losing more money.

the more i think about the hand tho i think it is closer to a fold then a call given how it has been played out. even tho i made a smaller raise on the flop then normal i think at the time and still maybe even now overestimate the ability of people to bluff off a 100bb stack in a reraised pot. and in this case even if he is bluffing, more then half the time he has 6 outs or more against me. so this effectively kills more equity. sigh. so in retrospect i think this hand is a fold.

ill post results in a few hours after people have some time to read thru this and discuss it if n e discusion is needed.


to address corsahk... u r wrong in this situation. while villian has been a maniac if u read the post u would know that he hadnt been getting out of line with 3 betting a ton thus his range is far from atc. and getting a bet 3 bet shove also defines his range much more as well. there is no way this is a simple shove and good luck. if u r thinking that then u r misapplying reads and hud numbers.

every situation has some range and VERY RARELY is villians range atc. that is just rediculous.

[mackthefork]

I think he's defined his range enough for you to fold here, i really do, I hope you called and won, but honestly I really doubt you are ever good here.

Mack

[bozzer]

Here's my first stab at weighting ranges with the wonderful new software from mikechops:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Results from www.HoldEmRanger.com
65,340 evaluations, 66 hole card combos

Board: 3h 6c 9s

Wins Ties Equity
35.85% 1.28% 37.13% ( JcJh )
61.59% 1.28% 62.87% ( TT+,99, 66(50), 33(25), AK(30), AQ(25) ) </pre><hr />

the numbers in brackets are how often I think he'll take this line with that hand. e.g. he'll b3b with AQ a quarter of the time, he'll 3b pf 33 and then b3b half the time on this flop etc.

From this stab it looks like we have a reasonable amount of equity.

This is the bit where corsakh has a point. How often does he b3b AK?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Borderline estimates often help to clear things up though. Here's one:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Results from www.HoldEmRanger.com
65,340 evaluations, 66 hole card combos

Board: 3h 6c 9s

Wins Ties Equity
28.11% 1.53% 29.64% ( JcJh )
68.83% 1.53% 70.36% ( TT+,99, 66(50), 33(25), AK(10), AQ(5) ) </pre><hr />


I reckon he's doing this with AK and other stuff you beat enough to call.

[orange]

I think that raise/folding this flop is horrible. Why raise to begin with? you obviously think you're going to gain value from much less of his range. What makes you think that he won't be shoving with his 88 instead of calling your raise/c/c-ing your turn shove? he's obviously aggressive and his range is wide.

raise/folding overpairs against aggro players is lighting money on fire.

[Waingro]

[ QUOTE ]
kaz. I think the advice from munkey, luckyjimm and AZplaya in this thread is pretty sharp. corsakh has a point in that there is a lot of uncertainty about the correct answer for this particular player.

the best advice i can give is to not chop down the trees!

[/ QUOTE ]
I am not luckyjimm and I resent the implications. I should seriously consider changing my nick, now that he is a minor forum celebrity. I registered here way before him.

[kaz2107]

k well i ended up talking myself into calling even tho the intial plan was to raise fold the flop. sigh. lol. he flipped over QQ and double thru me.

seems like this had good discusion tho so ill see if i cant stir up another hand with some uncertaintity this weekend and make another post

[AZplaya]

kaz,
I still think your being results oriented here - most 50/25 maniac types that I've played against have a big range for shoving after they 3 bet pre - sometimes they flip over the goods and its teh suck, but I still think your far enough ahead of his range to call the shove. Also, against a super aggro player, raise/folding this flop sux. If your raising here, its so you can induce a push which you call with a double fist pump.

[kaz2107]

[ QUOTE ]
kaz,
I still think your being results oriented here - most 50/25 maniac types that I've played against have a big range for shoving after they 3 bet pre - sometimes they flip over the goods and its teh suck, but I still think your far enough ahead of his range to call the shove. Also, against a super aggro player, raise/folding this flop sux. If your raising here, its so you can induce a push which you call with a double fist pump.

[/ QUOTE ]throw out a range for me. im kinda curious. when i messed with it i had a rough time comin up with one where i was break even with the pot odds i was getting.

PS
i had another semi interesting hand tonight with JJ and a weird line with some weird meta game stuff. so maybe ill have an encore later

PSS
i could deff b thinkin about this results oriented because of how bad i have been running/playing but as soon as i talked myself into calling i immediatly hit myself in the forehead. so meh

[AZplaya]

this is the range I would put a 50/25 on here...
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

49,500 games 0.031 secs 1,596,774 games/sec

Board: 3c 6h 9s
Dead:
equity
Hand 0: 50.046% { JcJh }

Hand 1: 49.954% { 88+, AKs, AKo }

even if we get rid of AK against 88+ your about 40/60. And I think that against this type of player you should give at least 10% to complete FPS.

[orange]

here is a thread on raise/folding. ae's post is good.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&amp;vc=1