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#31
06-14-2007, 04:39 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
Ok I entered the prize structure and did some major calculations with the exact structure. It turns out that the pure EV between the two calling ranges is almost exactly even. Exitonly's looser range is worth a very tiny amount more than the tighter range. However IMO these are sort of a best case scenario.
For instance if you simply take 22 out of his range, the two ranges immediately become equal in EV. This is because we strongly don't want action due to the prize increase gained by every elimination. Regardless of what it may seem, these things always have an affect, and usually its a bit more than people would guess. This is kind of why I think the comments about how you should not care about squeaking into the money at all are also incorrect. It always does mean something to squeak into the money, whether it feels like it or not. Also we don't want callers. Our hand simply doesn't play that great postflop, we could get multiple callers which is very bad for a hand like 77, and we could also get stop and go'ed on quite a few flops where we would have extreme difficulty continuing. In any case feel free to do the math yourself (I used SNGPT and had to edit the prize structure), but the EV difference between the two ranges is exceptionally small. Simply subtract 22 and add A9o to the list, and facing this range is now worse than the much tighter range. You are playing a very dangerous game getting involved in this stuff when every elimination pays you more money. 
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#32
06-14-2007, 04:45 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
alright i'm pretty convinced. At what point do you think you'd start raise-calling? or would you just shove with this stack with your whole range (minus like AA/KK)
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#33
06-14-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
alright i'm pretty convinced. At what point do you think you'd start raise-calling? or would you just shove with this stack with your whole range (minus like AA/KK) [/ QUOTE ] Tough one. I don't know that I'd ever raise call. You know in this special case I would with big hands like AA-QQ, because it seems that I don't have to be opening allin. Usually I like to balance that by raising some hands that I would clearly fold to an allin, but I think it's a bit too danerous to do that here. So, uhh in theory in this exact spot, if I don't go allin I probably have AA-KK. Maybe I could raise fold some ace hands, like A8o, A9o etc, but would depend how I felt about the table. btw you should do the math yourself, its of course very possible I made an error somewhere.
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#35
06-14-2007, 06:03 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ.
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#36
06-14-2007, 06:06 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ. [/ QUOTE ] huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure.
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#37
06-14-2007, 06:18 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ. [/ QUOTE ] huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure. [/ QUOTE ] crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it.
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#38
06-14-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ. [/ QUOTE ] huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure. [/ QUOTE ] crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it. [/ QUOTE ] You hate calling with 99?
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#39
06-14-2007, 06:27 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ. [/ QUOTE ] huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure. [/ QUOTE ] crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it. [/ QUOTE ] You hate calling with 99? [/ QUOTE ] I hate being called by 99.
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#40
06-14-2007, 06:28 PM
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Re: On the final table bubble in a WSOP Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So you think they're folding pairs > 7's to a shove? if this is teh case, then i'm definitely a fan of shoving, but i doubt that happens especially if he's been shoving frequently. [/ QUOTE ] Do you think someone is calling with 99,TT or JJ ? JJ is so meh to call this here. I'll give you QQ. [/ QUOTE ] huh? Of course I think they are calling 99+, whether it's correct or not against our range, I'm not so sure. [/ QUOTE ] crap, i had to refresh the stack sizes. you are probably right, but I still hate it. [/ QUOTE ] You hate calling with 99? [/ QUOTE ] I hate being called by 99. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I hate being called by 88 too. btw I wouldn't be completely shocked if someone folded 88 to a push (and they probably should against what our range will be here.) I suppose there is also some possibility of someone folding 99 but I'd be surprised. However it's above 0 chance, people play very strangely in these spots.
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