AA - I _know_ I'm beat, where do I fold?

[Xhad]

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"Overpair on a ragged flush draw board" and hero gave his read as "I've only been at the table for a couple orbits, and I have no specific reads yet."

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"Ragged" makes it worse because KQ type hands won't be overplaying top pair. And I would fold this with no reads whatsoever.

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Suppose you're ahead at the moment and that you've got about 70% equity in this 17 BB pot because you're against a pair and flush draw (BB). Since UTG looks like he's stacking off, you can reasonably expect you, UTG, and SB to be putting in 3 bets each by the showdown (SB has two more to put in, UTG has one more to put in).

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This is a point deserving of its own thread after I look over that math I mentioned above, but let's just say that I think you're grossly underestimating just how much of a parlay this is.

[Absolution]

I would fold this turn and if it turned out I was wrong I wouldn't feel that bad about it