A super KK fold

[T_Money]

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if we win the pot here when he folds AQ to a raise, he is never stacking off with AQ.

if we lose our whole stack to a set specifically on the river, we play bad.

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disagree on the first line.

Totally agree on the second line. Thats the point Ive been trying to make all night.

I'm going to bed, hopefully exit will come up w/ his response. And btw I wouldn't take the raise the flop line, I'd push the turn. However I think raising the flop is FAR (not slightly) superior to calling all the way down.

[T_Money]

I don't get it. This means he's ignoring me or I'm ignoring him? Sorry if I pissed you off Noah, not sure what I said other than stating why i disagree...

[jason75]

Given the size of the PF raise and villian's stack, I think I'm just going to get doubled through if he hits his set.

We've denied him the odds to do so, and he doesn't have enough chips to play in a pot this size . . . . so I'm not giving his smallish bets much credit.

I like the PF play (I probably would have popped it to 1K total to make sure he's committed if he calls, maybe even get a push out of him PF), like the flop play, but . . . . and maybe I'm just not good enough to fold here . . . I'm calling the turn and evaluating the river.

We're getting huge odds here, I just can't see how we're beat often enough to make calling -cEV. In fact, given the odds we have, I think a call here is hugely +EV.

On the river, I'm just dumping in the rest of his stack if he checks, and yes, I'm calling if he pushes.

I play Party a lot, and perhaps I'm just too jaded no matter the buy-in . . .

[nath]

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i'm with nath. i dont think this has to mean we're beat.

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What hands are you gonna see so often here? Other than exactly AQ, there's nothing feasible that I beat. I just don't see him taking this line with anything worse than AQ. And I doubt AQ is so keen to call preflop, tho its possible.

Also note that he's leading out not checking. And hes not leading with intention to take the pot down, rather it looks like hes awaiting a big bet from me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks to me like he's leading out an amount commensurate with the strength of his hand.
You give your opponents a lot more credit for not being idiots than I do. I think your average Party opponent frequently takes this line with AQ.

[Tiltyjoker]

Is it too far fetched that villian is "trying" to control pot size here also.... Plus this guy very well may have just satellited his way into the Party Super.

[Exitonly]

bahh. this hand sucks. i'm really unconvinced that we're beat here enough to fold.. QQ/JJ probably doesnt just call pf, and 77 doesnt often raise utg

I think AQ/AJ/KQ could all have gotten here with the same action, and i think are more likely given the PF action.

so, i dont see why calling all the way down wouldnt be best, i think villain is more likely to fold to a turn raise than they are to not bet the river. And, from the turn on, we only have to have the best hand 35% for a call down to be profitable.

so,

call down > raising flop > folding turn.

...

i think

[NHFunkii]

I'm calling down/value betting river

but to mlagoo and whoever was talking about - he's not folding AQ to a flop raise OR a turn raise. No way. Especially the average party super player.

[Colombo]

I agree with T_Money, in a way.

First off, I like the flop call, thats fine.

I would definitely push the turn however.

1.) I doubt AQ is folding here, so you're probably going to stack it anyway. If you just call, and a Q or an A comes on the river, you're going to have an even tougher decision. Not to mention, a K on the river kills your value, so I like to get my money in here.

2.) I doubt that villain is capable of pulling off a 3rd barrel with air. If we call the turn and he has nothing, I really don't think hell stick in another bet on the river. However, he might, who knows. I just think that pushing gains basically the same value as calling vs a bluff.

3.) This is a point which everyone has failed to recognize. What if villain has AK or K10, and is betting his draw? I know K10 is a stretch, but it is definitely possible. If he does in fact have a draw, and is semi-bluffing, we need to get our money in now rather than when he hits/misses on the river.

Anyway, thats why I think that pushing the turn is best.

[Machinehead]

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i'm with nath. i dont think this has to mean we're beat.

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What hands are you gonna see so often here? Other than exactly AQ, there's nothing feasible that I beat. I just don't see him taking this line with anything worse than AQ. And I doubt AQ is so keen to call preflop, tho its possible.

Also note that he's leading out not checking. And hes not leading with intention to take the pot down, rather it looks like hes awaiting a big bet from me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see villian taking this line with anything better than AQ. Why wouldn't he check to the reraiser with QQ or JJ? His bet looks like a probe/value bet with AQ or even AJ that doesn't wanna check/call or check/fold to a big c-bet.

[Wondercall]

Hi,

I don't post much here, but this hand kind of confuses me. Here I see our hero has an overpair against a random player of whom he has no solid read. It is the early stages of a tournament where, for the most part, players are very bad and disregard position. Although it is unusual for your most bad players to fire two barrels, is it not entirely impossible that the call on the flop has really confused the villian and he actually thinks his AQ/KQ/ or even AJ(??)is good? Is the average player leading this flop with flopped sets (the only hand we assume we are behind)? Doesn't the average player slowplay his monsters?

What about the flop bet of 1/3 the pot, and then again on the turn. This really confuses the hell out of me.

Aren't these the exact situations that we try to get ourselves in?

Of course im just assuming that this is the average player since the OP didn't speak of any real reads on him.

If my line of thinking is way off, could someone explain to me where i went wrong? Thanks.