Hand Analysis--Drawing to flush in multiway pot

[Niediam]

Assuming that our opponent just happens to have what would be the worst thing for us is just terrible. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Jaran]

Why would you want to face the entire field with a probable 2 cold here?

-Jaran

[OrigamiSensei]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming that our opponent just happens to have what would be the worst thing for us is just terrible. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm open to disagreement but please do me the courtesy of a better answer than that. If you're talking about button you'll note I did an anlysis with a considerably wider range of hands than AA and QQ. If you're talking about considering the effect of another flush draw being out there I think it's a very likely scenario under the circumstances (perhaps playing results a little but especially so given MP2's reaction to the river card). In any case I think my musings on how the opponent's cards are more likely to hurt the equity of our draw than that of button's currently made hand are valid.

Here's your challenge: do a three-way equity calculation with hero, button and MP2 with reasonable hand ranges that demonstrates enough of an edge showing we should cap the betting. I have already opened up button to any ace-broadway and QQ. I would say a calling station might stay with a flush draw, a gutshot straight draw, any ace and any Q-broadway, possibly a medium pocket pair 88-JJ. Feel free to adjust as you see fit.

I have done a version of these calculations, interested to see what you come up with.

[Niediam]

Sorry, I wasn't trying to be intentionally vague. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

It's certainly possible that the third party in this hypothetical could have a flush draw. But it's more likely that he has a pair or a straight draw. A more realistic EV analysis would put him on a huge range of hands.

It's also more likely mathematically for him have something like QJ as opposed to two clubs as four of the clubs are already accounted for.

[TheGrinch]

:grunch:

Unless you think BTN will raise I lead the flop. You have a very strong hand: a nut flush, and gut shot draw.

And for the love of god raise the river. Did you just have a brain fart and forget you had the NUT flush? I take it you lost this hand or you woudn't be posting it so I think BTN or MP2 holds Qs or As full.

[OrigamiSensei]

No problem, the calculation I did lends some support to your position.

I opened up the ranges to something similar to what I suggested above and the resulting calculation says we have a shade more than 40% of the equity here. I still don't think I'd come up with that play in the heat of battle and I also don't think we're quite as well off as this equity calc seems to indicate. However, I can certainly accept that capping the flop looks a lot more reasonable with three players than I thought.

Board: Ac 2c Qh
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.0739 % 40.55% 00.52% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 48.6720 % 47.10% 01.57% { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AdQc, AdQs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh }
Hand 3: 10.2540 % 08.45% 01.81% { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QcQd, QcQs, QdQs, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TT-88, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, AdQd, AsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Ad8d, Ah8h, As8s, Ad7d, Ah7h, As7s, Ad6d, Ah6h, As6s, Ad5d, Ah5h, As5s, Ad4d, Ah4h, As4s, Ad3d, Ah3h, As3s, Ad2d, Ah2h, As2s, KdQd, KsQs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, KdTd, KhTh, KsTs, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Kd8d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Kd7d, Kh7h, Ks7s, Kd6d, Kh6h, Ks6s, Kd5d, Kh5h, Ks5s, Kd4d, Kh4h, Ks4s, Kd3d, Kh3h, Ks3s, Kd2d, Kh2h, Ks2s, QdJd, QsJs, QcTc, QdTd, QsTs, Qc9c, Qc8c, Qc7c, Qc6c, Qc5c, Qc4c, Qc3c, Qc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AdQc, AdQs, AhQc, AhQd, AsQc, AsQd, AdJc, AdJh, AdJs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AdTc, AdTh, AdTs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, Ad9c, Ad9h, Ad9s, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, As9c, As9d, As9h, Ad8c, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, As8c, As8d, As8h, KdQc, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, KhTc, KhTd, KhTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, QcJh, QcJs, QdJh, QdJs, QsJd, QsJh, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, QsTc, QsTd, QsTh }

[bozlax]

Oh, Shania, save me! That's horrible. I think viewing this just killed more brain cells than Spring Break '86, where 2 buddies and I follwed the Dead through the South.

[OrigamiSensei]

If you like I'll ask the mods to put a NSFBoz tag on the subject line. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bigbrother36]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, Shania, save me! That's horrible. I think viewing this just killed more brain cells than Spring Break '86, where 2 buddies and I follwed the Dead through the South.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sup bro? Did you make it to Alpine that summer?

[bigbrother36]

[ QUOTE ]
It's also more likely mathematically for him have something like QJ as opposed to two clubs as four of the clubs are already accounted for.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? There are 16 ways to make QJ and 36 ways to make XcYc? 45 cards unknown that makes 990 different combinations.
QJ 990/16-1=60.875:1 against
XcYc 990/36-1=26.5:1 against
Of course this ignores the likelihood of any 2 suited being played PF, but then again so does your statement quoted above.

you should see this [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]