NL100: AKs OOP against limp-call

[orange]

fold the flop alot. sometimes reminiraise or call and cr turn. though these tards are never folding any pair.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
^^^
I don't think villain will pay us off if we hit river and lead it. I don't like c/c turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If youre right (you could be) then we have to c-f turn.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 29,54% equity.

F = Minimum profitable fold percentage
W = Equity (29,57%)
P = How big my push is copared to the size of total pot (0,98)


F =

P(1-W) - W(P+1)
___________________
P(1-W) - W(P+1) + 1


F = 0,098

He have to fold more often than 9,8% of the time to make my semibluff push profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not 100% positive because I don't totally understand how you got your formula, but I suspect this formula is wrong.

Here's my math (I rounded a few numbers to ease the math):

q = equity = .3
f = fold %

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
SB | - [78]
U | 39 39
------------
43 |


(43 is the pot before any betting)

EV = 0 = f(43+39+39) + (1-f)[ q(43+39+39) + (q-1)(78) ]
0 = 126f + (1-f)( .3(121) - .7(78) )
0 = 126f + (1-f)(-18.3)
0 = 126f - 18.3 + 18.3f
18.3 = 144.3f
18.3/144.3 = f

.13 = f
</pre><hr />

edit: fixed an error in the f(43+39) term which had some effect

edit2: fixed yet another error [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'll get this right eventually

[BJJIII]

if your going to take that line on the turn why not just open shove and make him cold call ~$80 instead of $~40. I think I open shove the turn.

I hate the CRAI on the turn and the flop call.

Three bet flop &amp; push AI on turn or fold flop, IMO.

[Aquadougs]

Chicago Twister:

I think your calculation is wrong:

F = Fold%
W = Win% if he calls

If fold% is 0,13, pot is 39, his bet is 39 and my push is 78,
then EV=

F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($78) + (F-1)W($39+$78) - (F-1)(W-1)($78)
= 0,13($78) + (0,87)0,2957($39+$78) - (0,87)(0,7046)($78)
= 2,417

If i does the same calculation at my fold%, and we use my numbers.
F = 0,098
Pot before push = 82
Pushsize = 81
His bet = 39

EV = F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($82) + (F-1)W($39+82) - (F-1)(W-1)($81)
= 0


Here is how I get the formula (tested and confirmed many times):

0 = F + W(1-F)(1+P) - P(1-F)(1-W)
- W(1-F)(1+P) + P(1-F)(1-W) = F
F/(1-F) = -W(P+1) + P(1-W)

New variable, X:

-W(P+1) + P(1-W) = X

X = P(1-W) - W(P+1)

Continuation of the calculation:

F/(1-F) = X

F = X(1-F)

F = X - XF

1 = X/F - X

1 + X = X/F

F = X/(X+1)

F = P(1-W) - W(P+1)
___________________
P(1-W) - W(P+1) + 1

It's kind of big, but I don't know how to make it more simple than that.

[BigMac1082]

1) Call flop raise
2) bet turn
3) if he raises, shove all in, if he calls shove river improved, check unimproved

[fees]

I vote call and shove turn if he bets

[Chicago Twister]

Aquadougs : take a look here. I think the highlighted term is missing the fact that when we pushed he called. your computation has the pre-push pot + our push, but not his call.

[ QUOTE ]
F($pot before push) + (F-1)W($pot before bet + pushsize) - (F-1)(W-1)($Pushsize)
= F($78) + (F-1)W($39+$78) - (F-1)(W-1)($78)

[/ QUOTE ]

This term should be ($39+$78+$39)

[Aquadougs]

Assume we both are agree that we talk about what we win if he calls and we hit; "(F-1)W".

I'm not agree with what you are saying. We wont win more than what lies in the pot + what he puts in the pot, not what we put in the pot. If the pot is 39 and he bets 39, the total pot is 78. If we push 78, then its 39 more for him to call. We wont win any part of the amount we are pushing. So if he calls and we hit, we will win: (the original pot)+ (his bet) + (his call) = 39+39+39.

Or more simple: (the original pot) + (our push, cause thats what he lies in the pot) = 39+78.