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#21
09-30-2007, 02:49 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Then you lose a chance at $26 instead of risking your entire stack. I know it's tight, but I'd choose a better spot with a lot more infortmation. [/ QUOTE ] 1. It's not $26...it's potentially a lot more if he calls the flop and the turn. 2. Your stack isn't in jeopardy if he c/c because OP can fold to a fourth spade. 3. You basically give him credit for having a hand every time, which is retarded. 4. Please post your PT stats because I have visions of you running 6/3 and grinding out 0.4 PTBB/100. [/ QUOTE ] You forgot to add that he is telling the biggest nit in the forum that he's playing way too loose and fast. [/ QUOTE ] Good call. Also, who complains about winning only 13 bets on one hand? 
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#22
09-30-2007, 02:52 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
Alright here's my thought process here. Lets assume no one flopped a flush or a set so you're ahead.
A few potential hands: Qs/10x: 50% to win. As/10x: 43% to win. As/jx or kx: 45% to win. Spade is the only card that will win it for them: 36% to win. At best you are winning 36% of the time here. But the pot was raised. Almost every hand calling you here is almost a 40/60. You are basically putting your money in on a coin flip ASSUMING that you even have the best hand right now, which is very, very likely that you do not. This is why I check the flop. If there is a spade on the turn, you get out cheap. If there is not a spade on a the turn, put in a pot sized bet, you are now way ahead and not betting on a coin flip. Also if the person behind you bets and the sb raises or calls, you know you should probably get out. I don't see much value in betting this flop.
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#23
09-30-2007, 02:54 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
Think man.
It is most likely 60/40. You are most likely putting your money in AHEAD. This is most likely what you want to happen. Stop looking for 80/20 edges because that is not how you play 1/2, sorry, if you want to be profitable you have to WANT to get it in likely 60/40.
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#24
09-30-2007, 02:57 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
Alright here's my thought process here. Lets assume no one flopped a flush or a set so you're ahead. A few potential hands: Qs/10x: 50% to win. As/10x: 43% to win. As/jx or kx: 45% to win. Spade is the only card that will win it for them: 36% to win. At best you are winning 36% of the time here. But the pot was raised. Almost every hand calling you here is almost a 40/60. You are basically putting your money in on a coin flip ASSUMING that you even have the best hand right now, which is very, very likely that you do not. This is why I check the flop. If there is a spade on the turn, you get out cheap. If there is not a spade on a the turn, put in a pot sized bet, you are now way ahead and not betting on a coin flip. Also if the person behind you bets and the sb raises or calls, you know you should probably get out. I don't see much value in betting this flop. [/ QUOTE ] There is so much stupidity in this post. I'll skip over most of it because it's a waste of my time, but it's not a 36/64 because you're not always getting it in on the flop. And even if you do, I'd say 64% equity is pretty freaking +EV. Do you just sit around and wait for 81/19 situations or something?
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#25
09-30-2007, 02:57 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
It's most likely 60/40. IF you're not drawing to 4 outs, which is very likely. Those are not good odds. If you add in sets, the open ended straight draws with a spade, etc. then you are not looking very good. You are putting all your money in on what is most likely a coin flip. Might as well play blackjack or high card.
I'm averaging $1500 a month so far this year playing 1/2 twice a week.
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#26
09-30-2007, 03:04 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
There is so much stupidity in this post. I'll skip over most of it because it's a waste of my time, but it's not a 36/64 because you're not always getting it in on the flop. And even if you do, I'd say 64% equity is pretty freaking +EV. Do you just sit around and wait for 81/19 situations or something? [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps if you hadn't skipped over the "stupidity" in this post you would realize that you're just looking at the best case scenario, which is rarely going to be the case here. Look, I don't doubt that you guys take this pot down more than I do. I'm just saying that while I might not win this $26 I'm not buying in again as often either. My line works for me, and the only time I play this ultra aggressive the way you guys are advocating is during a tournament.
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#27
09-30-2007, 03:06 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
I lost a bundle in the same spot last week. [/ QUOTE ] lol... Anyway, it's posters like you who shaped me into the nitty player I am back when I didn't know any better to be able to distinguish between good advice and bad... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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#28
09-30-2007, 03:21 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
It's most likely 60/40. IF you're not drawing to 4 outs, which is very likely. Those are not good odds. If you add in sets, the open ended straight draws with a spade, etc. then you are not looking very good. You are putting all your money in on what is most likely a coin flip. Might as well play blackjack or high card. I'm averaging $1500 a month so far this year playing 1/2 twice a week. [/ QUOTE ] It can't be most likely that is a 60/40 and also very likely that we are drawing to 4 outs.... Anywyas BT2, yes this is very standard, you gotta get your money in here I suppose although it does suck.
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#29
09-30-2007, 03:24 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I lost a bundle in the same spot last week. [/ QUOTE ] lol... Anyway, it's posters like you who shaped me into the nitty player I am back when I didn't know any better to be able to distinguish between good advice and bad... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm just saying that this is a place where we have a choice. We can either expect to see some high variance (yes, maybe even a dreaded coin flip), or we can fold. In cases like that, I'll take the variance. Yes, we might get stacked, but in my opinion, good players can't be afraid of a coin flip. Being braver than the other guy is a huge edge a lot of the time. If we get stacked, so be it. There are bigger tragedies than losing a buy-in. It's not the end of the world, and at least we can take solace in knowing that we have a fully functional set of testicles.
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#30
09-30-2007, 03:28 AM
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Re: 1/2 am i a donk?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I lost a bundle in the same spot last week. [/ QUOTE ] lol... Anyway, it's posters like you who shaped me into the nitty player I am back when I didn't know any better to be able to distinguish between good advice and bad... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I'm just saying that this is a place where we have a choice. We can either expect to see some high variance (yes, maybe even a dreaded coin flip), or we can fold. In cases like that, I'll take the variance. Yes, we might get stacked, but in my opinion, good players can't be afraid of a coin flip. Being braver than the other guy is a huge edge a lot of the time. If we get stacked, so be it. There are bigger tragedies than losing a buy-in. It's not the end of the world, and at least we can take solace in knowing that we have a fully functional set of testicles. [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I was agreeing with getting the money in [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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