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#21
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I think against an average shortstack, who pushes against your raise (you raised from MP, from UTG it would be differently, since the shortstack must put you on a bigger hand) you can call with AK and JJ+.
AQ is -EV, because there is no hand you are a favorite against. Maybe AJ, but it's questionable if the Shorty would push with that. JJ is slightly +EV, if you believe the Shorty would push with AQ as well, otherwise, you're dominated most of the time. QQ is +EV, since you dominate JJ and AQ, are a slight favorite against AK and only against KK and AA in a bad shape. |
#22
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Villain is a clear 5.1/4.8/3 with 273 hands. Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $545.10 BB: $106.90 UTG: $49.00 UTG+1: $100.00 Sandviper23 (MP1): $205.35 MP2: $17.00 MP3: $62.55 CO: $35.80 BTN: $58.50 Preflop: Sandviper23 is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players) 2 folds, <font color="red">Sandviper23 raises to $4.00</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises all-in to $17.00</font>, 5 folds, Sandviper23 calls $13.00 Flop: ($35.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In) Turn: ($35.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In) River: ($35.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In) Pot Size: $35.50 ($35.50 Rake) MP2 had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$17.00) Sandviper23 had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$17.00) [/ QUOTE ] wait, you are telling me that AA is in his range when he RR's preflop am I getting this right? wow I think I learned something new today, I'm pumped, I'm going to just start folding KK everytime I get RR because well he could have AA and man that would suck ps 273 hands doesn't tell you that much about VPIP and PFR, he could easily be running 4-5% below normal, also could easily have not had AA/KK/QQ in that sample either [/ QUOTE ] This hand was dealt to me about 5 minutes ago, so after i read everything from the post I think that i made the RIGHT call based on everything i read here |
#23
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[ QUOTE ]
AQ is -EV, because there is no hand you are a favorite against. Maybe AJ, but it's questionable if the Shorty would push with that. [/ QUOTE ] its not about being a favorite, its about having >breakeven equity(hint breakeven is going to be less than 50%) this is basic pot odds stuff AQs is a close fold vs JJ+ AQ+ and a call vs most wider ranges |
#24
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] AQ is -EV, because there is no hand you are a favorite against. Maybe AJ, but it's questionable if the Shorty would push with that. [/ QUOTE ] its not about being a favorite, its about having >breakeven equity(hint breakeven is going to be less than 50%) this is basic pot odds stuff AQs is a close fold vs JJ+ AQ+ and a call vs most wider ranges [/ QUOTE ] Well, let's do some math. The pot odds are 1 to 1,6 (you raised to 4 BB and Button pushed with 20 BB). Possible holdings of the shortstack are: AQ+ and JJ+ Makes a total of 46 hand combinations (16 for AK, 9 for AQ, 6 for each pair except QQ (only 3 left)). Against KK and QQ you're about a 29% dog. (9 Combinations) Against JJ you're a 45% dog (6) Against AQ you're splitting the pot in most cases. (9) Against Ak you're a 24% dog. (16) Against AA you're a 7,5% dog. (6) Putting AK and KK+QQ together, youre a 26% dog against 25 combinations, which represent 54 % of the possible holdings. 0.54x0.26 = 0,14 chance of winning JJ represents only 13%. 0.13x0.45 = 0,06 chance of winning AA as well 13%. 0.13x.0.075 = 0,01 chance of winning AQ = 0.2x0.5 (splitpot=0,5) = 0,1 chance of winning All in all you have a 31% of winning given the range of hands described above. So in 100 Hands, you'll win 31x 1.6= 49.6 and lose 69x1= 69 As it turns out to call a push with AQ against a tight shortstack is -EV. If the shorty is loose and your raise came from the button, things look differently. |
#25
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JJ+ and usually AK.
It also depends on how the short stack views you and your raises. so that could tighten up to QQ+ and usually AK. Anyone who is calling with AQ vs a shortstack is bad, but reraising with it has some merit vs a late position short stack raise. |
#26
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lol, this thread is so funny. This is why its profitable to SS. I mean, you guys are supposed to all be regulars (so at least mediocre and in some cases good) and you all have no idea what you're talking about with the calling ranges. Please fold AK and AQ.
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#27
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If shorties range is as tight as JJ+/AQ+ and you're going to call with AQ, you should also be calling with 22.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.065% 21.17% 11.89% 14139145 7941942.50 { AcQd } Hand 1: 66.935% 55.04% 11.89% 36756826 7941942.50 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 37.365% 37.07% 00.29% 35549760 279530.00 { 2c2d } Hand 1: 62.635% 62.34% 00.29% 59780204 279530.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } If shorties range is even a little wider, AJ+/TT+ then AQ does significantly better: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.491% 33.73% 08.76% 32922314 8549558.00 { AcQd } Hand 1: 57.509% 48.75% 08.76% 47579898 8549558.00 { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.750% 38.46% 00.29% 51361506 392694.00 { 2c2d } Hand 1: 61.250% 60.96% 00.29% 81412818 392694.00 { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ } One thing not mentioned is the value in busting out a short stack (particularly a decent short stack) who may be replaced by a full stack. This may be worth a marginally -ev call like AQ vs the tight push. |
#28
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i call them with 10 7 and try to suck out them
( so they DIEIDIEIDEIDIEIDIEDIEDIE ) espicially mtg |
#29
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You called me with KK after 3betting me 2 straight hands when I was btn and then SB on your right and then tried to tell me that you never bluff after I typed "ship it to steeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez" in chat. I however, don't believe you and will continue to assault your blinds since you were just lucky enough to get two good hands in a row.
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#30
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[ QUOTE ]
If shorties range is as tight as JJ+/AQ+ and you're going to call with AQ, you should also be calling with 22. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 33.065% 21.17% 11.89% 14139145 7941942.50 { AcQd } Hand 1: 66.935% 55.04% 11.89% 36756826 7941942.50 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 37.365% 37.07% 00.29% 35549760 279530.00 { 2c2d } Hand 1: 62.635% 62.34% 00.29% 59780204 279530.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } If shorties range is even a little wider, AJ+/TT+ then AQ does significantly better: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.491% 33.73% 08.76% 32922314 8549558.00 { AcQd } Hand 1: 57.509% 48.75% 08.76% 47579898 8549558.00 { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.750% 38.46% 00.29% 51361506 392694.00 { 2c2d } Hand 1: 61.250% 60.96% 00.29% 81412818 392694.00 { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ } One thing not mentioned is the value in busting out a short stack (particularly a decent short stack) who may be replaced by a full stack. This may be worth a marginally -ev call like AQ vs the tight push. [/ QUOTE ] True, whether the SS busts or doubles up, he is leaving shortly. |
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