Live 20/40NL hand, DEEP

[TheWorstPlayer]

this isn't 100bb online - it's 400bb live. i highly doubt he's bluffing the river very often, especially on a scarecard that didn't hit him. he's not some mega-tilter or some LA maniac - he's a pretty solid reg. I'd definitely fold if he pushes a scary river and i might fold if he pushes a blank...

[AcidKnight]

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Depending on how OP has been playing he's actually probably not too worried about OP having the nuts, since KQ is anything but an automatic raise UTG in a straddled pot... however, given the action he could easily put him on AK/AQ and be raising everything worse for value, especially since he's stuck and doesnt' want to get "sucked out on again."


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This was my thought as well. I think the Hero's hand looks a lot more like a 1-pair type AK or AQ hand than it does anything else. The villain is easily raising with any hand that beats that to end the hand right there.

Shoving the turn just doesn't make sense. I'd call the turn and probably call about any river that isn't a K or Q.

[BobboFitos]

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this isn't 100bb online - it's 400bb live. i highly doubt he's bluffing the river very often, especially on a scarecard that didn't hit him. he's not some mega-tilter or some LA maniac - he's a pretty solid reg. I'd definitely fold if he pushes a scary river and i might fold if he pushes a blank...

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its NOT 400 bb though, it's a straddled pot, it plays alot similarly to 200bb. even still, the question is call or raise, folding is never an option.

[Hattifnatt]

I still think pushing is better than calling.

If we pushes Villian have to call 9400 to win 32000 getting 2,4:1.

I doubt that he folds a hand he will bet for value on the river. However, if a scare card like a club, 9,8, K or Q etc. falls he might check/fold some two pair/set hands and such knowing Hero most likely have something strong.

He can also semi-bluff turn with a big draw that will not pay off a brick river.

Also, by pushing, we minimize the risk of making a big mistake on the river.

I think that if we call we have to have the plan to call any river if Villian pushes.

[ALL1N]

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however, given the action he could easily put him on AK/AQ and be raising everything worse for value, especially since he's stuck and doesnt' want to get "sucked out on again."

I'd probably just call turn then close my eyes and call any river that doesn't help AK, since that's your most likely hand in Villain's mind. If it does and he's still betting... no clue what I'd do. Prolly still call.

Far as his huge 3-bet being the nuts, no, not at all. Like I said, he could be raising for value vs AK or raising anything pair + draw to put pressure on you since you've seriously underrepresented your hand.

Kirk

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Would he really expect us to raise AK here? It seems like a pretty standard call to me.

[durrrr]

i lost a 40kish pot yesterday w/ AA v KJ on AQT in that same game [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. Call or shove here obv imo... yes it sucks... but its 200bb, you have top set- and he's possibly slightly tilty- im not folding turn. I don't hate calling then folding some rivers (even blanks w/ some river reads) that much, but im getting this in like 90%+ on either turn or river.

[sirtimo]

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Anyways...
He live straddles, I'm UTG with AA, i make it 280, folded to him, he calls. Flop JT7 rainbow, he checks I check. (Comments on flop check welcomed)

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ok, why not bet the flop?

[mikech]

twp and durrrr mentioned the possibility of folding blank rivers; i don't see how you can. if you think top set is no good and you need to fill up, his 1.5x-pot turn raise denies you implied odds. if you really suspect you're behind, then you should just fold to the turn overbet.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

mikech, i think you can make a play on the turn based on impartial information where evfen if it's moderately incorrect to get implied odds to fill up or whatever, there are going to be x number of times where we are good anyways (and he shuts down, or we make a read on the river to correctly fold or correctly call) that, imo, will make up for the call on the turn. besides all that, this is just too far to the top of your range to just straight muck the turn, i' mnot saying he'll show up with air here very often, but if he knows you dont' have a set or a low straight (he might suspect AA bets the flop obv), then your range is a turn 2p, KQ or pure air (CONCIEVABLY can be in his eyes). if he weights it towards air, or hands he can get you off of, then perhaps his bluff frequency will be high (in fact just the notion that KQ is a good neough draw on this flop to often bet it).

it's no where near clear cut enough to fold the turn, imo.

[TheWorstPlayer]

ya, mike, way i see it - we're maybe 50/50 ahead/behind on the turn. so we can call, because we're ahead enough and we are getting decent implied odds when we're behind. but if he shoves a blank river, we're probably ahead only 20% or something, and therefore should fold. you do get more info when he shoves the river than just when he overbets the turn, IMO.