$16 Stars: 10 10 against regular

[Villeroi]

i think its a push.

[ymu]

What raising and calling ranges are the pushers giving him? It'd be good to see some math behind the reasoning here.

[chuckpalms04]

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What raising and calling ranges are the pushers giving him? It'd be good to see some math behind the reasoning here.

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[Josem]

Some back of the envelope math.

Assumptions:

a) Villain has a range of 77+, AJ+ (excluding AT 'cause you have two of the tens, and many players would fold this from villains' position anyway), KQ. I think this is a generously wide range to ascribe to villain.

b) Villain will call your push (he'll be getting almost 3:1 when it gets back to him)

c) Thus, you're in a position where you're coinflipping - the times villain has 77-99 are more than compensated by the times that villain has AA-JJ. Add in a percent or two when villain has two overcards, and you're back to close to 50/50. Pokerstove can do the calcs more accurately if you care.

d) While I havent' done the ICM math on this spot, I assume that facing a showdown where you are knocked out 50% of the time will cost you.

e) Pushing is -EV.

[ymu]

^^Range is too wide and FE is too little (definitely for that range)

With what we know (he pushed last hand with ~10BB, he's a non-donkish regular), I'd give him {AK, TT+} weighted somewhat to the bigger pairs - and zero FE with this range. It's not even cEV to push against this, so I won't bother with ICM.

I think your conclusion is correct. It's -$EV.

[Josem]

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^^Range is too wide

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I agree - I'm trying to be as "generous" as possible for the people advocating a push.

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and FE is too little (definitely for that range)

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I disagree on this bit - if villain is loose enough to be raising with more, he's also likely to be loose enough to be calling with more.

OTOH, if villain is tight, he's only raising with a small number of hands, all of which he can then call with. I think that either way, the practical effect is that villain folds very rarely here.

[ QUOTE ]
With what we know (he pushed last hand with ~10BB, he's a non-donkish regular), I'd give him {AK, TT+} weighted somewhat to the bigger pairs - and zero FE with this range. It's not even cEV to push against this, so I won't bother with ICM.

I think your conclusion is correct. It's -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AQ, 99 are also right to include in there... I'd include stuff like that.

(and btw, for anyone reading, I'd also suggest the villain pushing rather than raising and calling a push)

[ymu]

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^^Range is too wide

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I agree - I'm trying to be as "generous" as possible for the people advocating a push.

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and FE is too little (definitely for that range)

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree on this bit - if villain is loose enough to be raising with more, he's also likely to be loose enough to be calling with more.

OTOH, if villain is tight, he's only raising with a small number of hands, all of which he can then call with. I think that either way, the practical effect is that villain folds very rarely here.

[ QUOTE ]
With what we know (he pushed last hand with ~10BB, he's a non-donkish regular), I'd give him {AK, TT+} weighted somewhat to the bigger pairs - and zero FE with this range. It's not even cEV to push against this, so I won't bother with ICM.

I think your conclusion is correct. It's -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think AQ, 99 are also right to include in there... I'd include stuff like that.

(and btw, for anyone reading, I'd also suggest the villain pushing rather than raising and calling a push)

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See - I think he pushes AQ and 99 - I think he's more likely to push AK and TT-QQ too. The real point of this hand is that this guy knows how to pushbot and, absent a read that he's moronically attached to the 10BB rule, he's not raising loose here.

And if he is raising loose-ish, it's because it's a hand like AJ or KQs that he thinks is too dangerous to push when he pushed the last hand - you do have FE if the raise is caution (looser raising range) instead of a trap (very tight raising range).

[allhappythoughts]

This spot sucks.

If he's anywhere decent, but the rest of your table isn't, I'd go ahead and assume he's trying to stir up action from one of the other players. He's got a hand he's willing and wants to get it in pf with. Even with the hypothetical wide range, you're either dominated or flipping the vast majority of the time (in reality I'm sure it's worse). You're in great shape against 99, and that's it. So yeah, curse under your breath and fold I think.

[Bruut99]

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^^Range is too wide and FE is too little (definitely for that range)

With what we know (he pushed last hand with ~10BB, he's a non-donkish regular), I'd give him {AK, TT+} weighted somewhat to the bigger pairs - and zero FE with this range. It's not even cEV to push against this, so I won't bother with ICM.

I think your conclusion is correct. It's -$EV.

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I get the feeling people adjusting villains range just to be right. Ofcourse if villains range is 1010+ here 1010 is a fold. We can better discuss the range of the villain. Is he folding 9's? calling? raising 8's? raising A10?

[ymu]

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I get the feeling people adjusting villains range just to be right. Ofcourse if villains range is 1010+ here 1010 is a fold. We can better discuss the range of the villain. Is he folding 9's? calling? raising 8's? raising A10?

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That would be fair if I routinely advised people to fold TT preflop in this kind of spot, but I don't. I've also said I'd call if he had pushed. You think I'm saying to fold here just for [censored] and giggles?

If villain had a deeper stack or had shown that he didn't know about correct pushbotting strategy, my chips are in the pot with no regrets. It'd be a pretty trivial hand if that was the case.

The interesting thing here is that he raised 3x with 12.5BB in his stack. This is unusual from a regular who does pushbot and has implications for his hand range. Only the OP can make that assessment - and the read was that this player would not make this raise with a weak hand.