Tournament hand

[I dunno]

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Well, he is getting 3-1, because its still possible that he could scoop this.

[/ QUOTE ]I dunno - Agreed. He is getting 3-1 if he scoops. And you are correct that it is reasonably possible he will scoop.

Let's say roughly 24% of the time Hero is getting 3-1 (because from Hero's point of view, low is about 759/990 or 76% likely).

But at any rate, I should have included the equity from that 24% scoop possibility. I can see a way to do that. (However, it's moot, because it would not change my conclusion).

Buzz

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I wasn't trying to correct you Buzz, just trying to explain my thought process. I just think about things differently than most other people.

[bbartlog]

Yes. Mind you, that's based on the assumption that BB is very likely to fold if I raise, which sensible people might disagree with. The slight gain in expected chips if I call and BB calls (and I play the river perfectly) is offset by the chance of me goofing up on the river (my latest comments are based on a 'cards-face-up' analysis).
Also, if you look at the outcomes in terms of stack sizes and factor in decreasing marginal chip value, it may not be a positive result even if there's a net gain in expected chips, because I'm more likely to be shortstacked if BB stays in.
Something like
BB calls:
20% of the time I end up with 10K chips
80% of the time I end up with 37K chips
average 31.6K
BB folds:
7% of the time I end up with 10K chips
93% of the time I end up with 32K chips
average 30.5K
(figures approximate of course, and here I'm actually giving BB a heart flush draw instead of what she had)

Anyway, you'd want to do ICM calcs to see which situation was really better, but in general I think that I would rather drop my chance of being shortstacked from 20% to 7% and sacrifice the extra 1K in chips.

I guess the final question would be 'what chance would you have to assign to BB calling in order for you to be ambivalent about raising vs calling yourself'? Because obviously if BB does call I'm chucking chips away into a sidepot where BB is (almost certainly) freerolling me. I think if BB is more than 30% likely to call then I wouldn't raise. But I really think she would have folded.

[I dunno]

I just wouldn't think anyone with a hand good enough, or at least a hand they thought was good enough, to call the flop would fold to your raise on that turn card. But without being at the table its hard to know that, and I have seen people do some pretty strange things in these tournaments.