My two pair vs. a TAG's turn donk

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed and understood. So I guess we are looking at him making his own 2 pair when the 2 hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here we go again.

Assuming he's made AT LEAST two pair is reasonable when an unknown donks like this. Now, list all the hands that might've either flopped or turned two pair or better. Cull the ones that you don't think would've been raised pf (T2o, for instance), and the ones that would've capped preflop (AA/JJ/TT). Count up the number of combinations of those hands, and look at how many Hero is behind vs. ahead.

[Thriller]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The way I see it, we are losing to TT, JJ, KQs and KQo. All of those hands are hands that I can see being raised (and calling a 3-bet) preflop.

I'm not sure how else to interpret the turn bet from the villain.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thrill, it's good that you're trying to do this, but you're making a common mistake: the range is too tight, and only includes hands that beat you. What about AT? What about AK? What about A2? What about JT?

[/ QUOTE ]

AT: I can see the PF raise (even more so now when I realized it was 6 max). If this is the case, of course we rightly would raise. He's got 2 outs to beat us.

AK: I included that in my range above, but I really didn't address it in my posts. We have a better hand and he's got 7 outs to beat us. Raising here makes sense as well.

A2: Discussed above, though I'm still not comfortable he call's the re-raise PF and the flop bet with that hand. Still, we're ahead.

JT: similar to AT above. Raising is obviously correct.

In general, I am still working on
1. Thinking about what the villain has. Maybe I'm too tight for villains. And I definitely need to stop reading the 6 max hands for now.
2. Thinking about what he may be thinking we have.
3. Interpreting his actions to include the results of #2.

All in the timeframe of the Pokerstars time limits.

[NIX]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he's made AT LEAST two pair is reasonable when an unknown donks like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
[nit]I wouldn't consider him a total unknown. I wouldn't consider him to be that good of a TAG, but from his stats and the impression that I'm getting that he is at least tightening up his showdown range against me, I think we can figure this guy plays at least somewhat rationally.[/nit]

And because no one has brought this up yet, does anyone want to give any weight to pair/club draw hands here? If we are including A2 in his range, how about K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something?

[Thriller]

[ QUOTE ]

Cull the ones that you don't think would've been raised pf (T2o, for instance), and the ones that would've capped preflop (AA/JJ/TT).

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my problem. I understand most of the rest of this.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
Then I am completely out my element. I didn't give a single thought to A2 calling a 3bet pre-flop. That just doesn't make any sense to me. Why would he more likely to have A2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically the only time you should fold preflop after raising preflop is if it's 2 more bets to you and you think you're likely dominated. Example: You raise AJo UTG, get 3bet and capped and the raisers aren't both maniacs, you can fold there. But if just one tight player reraised you call (even though you shouldn't like your hand that much).

[NIX]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe villan has A2 before thinking he has these hands. Why would he play in a way to basically ensure the least amount goes into the pot 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll bring this up too. I searched, but can't find it now, but someone (Buzz?) posted in a different thread a day or two ago about how check/raising is the best way to get money in on streets since a lot of the attempts to donk/3bet things are pretty obvious, especially when the initial donk is from a good player or on a total blank. Thriller also mentioned above that he thinks CO might be donking hoping I'll raise and protect his set. In my read, I also noted that except for the one time I did have TPTK, I folded to every turn check/raise from the CO, although I don't know how often it has happened. It probably happened about 3 times in the current session which was roughly 60-70 hands old.

Do you think it's possible he's attempting to bet/3bet a monster here since that 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] really doesn't help very much of his range and check/raising hasn't been working for him, or is that just me possibly trying to overthink things?

[Xhad]

NIX, I think that he has a monster a lot of the time. Thing is we beat a lot of his monsters, especially if he's the type that automatically thinks 2 pair = the nuts without realizing how narrow your range is here. Given the lack of a pf cap and the flop call I think his range is almost exactly 2pair at this point.

[milesdyson]

i think his range is exactly not two pair except for A2.

all other two pair hands c/r the flop after the obviously horrible SB calls. sets also c/r the flop.

his range is mostly one pair of aces and you have a super easy raise.

[Shillx]

I'm confused and that really worries me when it is coming from a TAG. The only hands that *kinda* make sense are ones that you beat but they don't amount to very many hand-combos (Ax [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the most part). He is pretty much retarded if he has KQ or JJ in this spot but of course his play is going to bail him out b/c it makes no sense at all.

[RabidTortuga]

Raise, he either just hit his second pair with A2, or has you crushed with a set of 2's. Since there are more ways for him to have A2 than 22, I'm raising.

Even if he 3-bets with a set or KQ, you're now getting 10.5:1 to call with your 4 clean outs to the boat, just the odds you need. Since he'll lead the river whether you make it or not, you'll win an extra bet when you hit and possibly more.

I also think he's passive enough that you can fold the river unimproved if you get 3-bet on the turn. Pot size might argue a call, though.

I'm really feeling like this is A2.