(LC/Strat) How often do you make plays like this?

[Mr_Donktastic]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeti Theorem.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeti assumes a few things...one is that your opponent knows the Yeti theorem, if not by name knows that flop 3 bets on low dry board can often be bluffs. It based on the fact that people think that the 3 bettor would NEVER 3 bet with a set or overpair, preferring to slowplay (which is why I 3 bet sets and overpairs ldo).

Also it doesn't really apply AS MUCH if your raise is big enough to be essentially AI. Villian still has to have a hand that can call. They may loosen their calling standards a bit, but they aren't going to call with ATC...they still have to have a pretty good hand.

Also a flop c/r vs a btn/co cbet at 400nl does not mean they have a good hand.

[D.L.M.]

Well there are metagame reasons for not letting people dick you aroung with c/r's. Thats why this hand interests donk. Majority of the time your cbets really cant take a check raise when you open so many hands from teh button. so you have to balance a little action with hands you dont intent to stack off with so that you cant trust villians check raises more often. you cant just give up everytime you get cr ed and your hand cant take heat.


I have no doubt that you are a good player of course.

[A_C_Slater]

[ QUOTE ]
Well there are metagame reasons for not letting people dick you aroung with c/r's. Thats why this hand interests donk. Majority of the time your cbets really cant take a check raise when you open so many hands from teh button. so you have to balance a little action with hands you dont intent to stack off with so that you cant trust villians check raises more often. you cant just give up everytime you get cr ed and your hand cant take heat.


I have no doubt that you are a good player of course.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree. And that is why I almost always check these small rainbow boards with AK. Especially if I have a bckdoor flush draw.

[RipperTEQ]

Risking $225.50 to win $120

Here are reasonable hand combinations:

33 - 3
55 - 3
99 - 3
TT - 6
JJ - 6
QQ - 6
KK - 3
AA - 3
AK - 9
Other crap - 8 (16% raising flop with air)

50 total combinations

Air (8/50): 16% of hands, instafold win +$120

33,55,99,AA (12/50): = 24% of hands, instacall and lose -$225.50

KK (3/50) call/fold 50/50 = lose $-225.50 2.61% of hands / win +$120 3% of hands / win +$345.50 .39% of hands (suckout Ace 13% of time)

AK (9/50): = tie split pot 18%

TT-QQ (18/50): call/fold 25/75 lose -$225.50 6.75% of hands / win +$120 27% of hands / win +$345.50 2.25% of hands (Suckout Ace or King 25%)


.16(120) + .24(-225.50) + .0261(-225.50) + .03(120) + .0039(345.50) + .18(0) + .0675(-225.50) + .27(120) + .0225(345.50) = 19.2 - 54.12 - 5.88 + 3.6 + 1.35 + 0 - 15.22 +32.4 +7.77 = -10.9


So if you think the guy would call your raise with any PP, rarely reraise you light on the flop (less than 1 in 6 of the time) and if you think that they will not lay down a good pair a very high majority of the time, this is -EV.

[RipperTEQ]

Also note that even a change in % of times he may c/r you with ATC from 15-16% to instead 25% or so looks like it would probably make the move +EV. So the key is, how likely is he to be raising light and how often does he play those pairs for stacks. But you already knew that. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Johnes Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
yeah but if you call hell have to put you on an over pair, and if he fires at you again, id say you saved money.

[/ QUOTE ]
The thing is I think a bad player could donk turn just bc he doesnt want to get folded by an agg player in many situations where he wouldn't put his money in if raised AI on flop

[iponnet]

I play them like that once in a blue moon,,, I can see this working against some players though especially on a board like that its usually an over pair to the board that the villan is reping so we can usually rule out a set!

but you can easily over do this but it will still be profitable vs the right opponent but if people start noticing this you are gona have to imbrace high varience which will in turn put you on tilt if you are tilt prone like most poker players and that will make it a -ev style.

[HesseJam]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 ($353.30)
MP2 ($621.15)
MP3 ($422)
CO ($394)
Hero ($440.55)
SB ($301.50)
BB ($378)
UTG ($505)
UTG+1 ($234)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, SB calls $14, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($36) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $24</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $60</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $424.55</font>

By hands like this I mean pooshing overcards (I usually only do this with AK/AQ) hard on raggy non-threatening boards after your cbet gets raised. Doesn't have to be a poosh - could just be a big reraise...

So...sometimes? never? once in a blue moon? all the time?

Do you think its +ev, -ev, or about neutral and basically a variance booster?

[/ QUOTE ]

The following is based on NL 100:

In this situation, I'm doing this with about 50% of my hands but not necessarily all-in if as deep as yourself. I like to have a read on villain though which should confirm that he is capable of rring with little. It's better than
calling, I think. As a matter of fact, I think calling would be horrible.

Compared to folding or calling it is certainly +ev, especially if it is somewhat read-based (ie., you don't do it against known nits but you cou could do it against unknowns).

Compared to folding it is of course a variance booster. Compared to calling not very much.

Question to OP: Villain rr'ed somewhat lightly. What would be the cut off for you for not 3-betting? 100? 150?

[HesseJam]

All:

I am amazed at how risk averse many of you are. This seems to be a nit haven here.

If you use a little reading on your opponent, it cannot be a significantly -EV play. So, it is a safe play! Safe in a way that if you do it a fraction of times it is helpful for your meta game. It opens up more options. You can get more action on AA. You tell others "be careful with rr'ing me lightly, I'm not easily impressed". I don't play NL400 but I know it impresses the sh!t out of the regular NL100 nits.

Mix it up a bit more!

Added: Maybe the difference is that I am an ex SnG-Donk and more used to bang-bang plays.

[Mr_Donktastic]

RipperTEQ - very interesting analysis...I hadn't worked this out at all and your math looks pretty good from a quick read through. It is VERY tough to try to calculate the ev in this hand...lots of unknowns, assumptions, etc. But my hunch is that this play is about neutral.

BUT - dlm and hessejam have made good points about the ev you wil gain in later hands by making these plays, by 1) telling people that they can't c/r you lightly and 2) getting paid off more easily when you do have AA or a set.

A few times in this thread I also heard things like wait for a better spot to get your stack in and stuff like that, which I think is a bad way to think. You can't just sit around and wait all the time, you have to take every opportunity, even it involves putting in your whole stack in marginal situations. That's why we have big bankrolls!