KK lost all my money on this flop

[drj003]

[ QUOTE ]

No. If you have a 25% chance to win, you are a 1:3 dog (25% vs 75%). That means you need to be getting 3:1 odds from the pot to call, not 4:1. So you can profitably call 33 into a 100 pot with 25% chance to win. [ QUOTE ]


actually 1-3 is way different that 1 out of 3. You are saying 1 out of 3 here. When it is actually 1 to 3. 25% to win is all. That's pot odds for sure.

[drj003]

I made a confusing post, I'll fix....[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No. If you have a 25% chance to win, you are a 1:3 dog (25% vs 75%). That means you need to be getting 3:1 odds from the pot to call, not 4:1. So you can profitably call 33 into a 100 pot with 25% chance to win. [ QUOTE ]


actually 1-3 is way different that 1 out of 3. You are saying 1 out of 3 here. When it is actually 1 to 3.(period) 25% chance to win means you can spend 25% of the pot to try to win. That's pot odds for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

[4_2_it]

wolfram,

Excellent refresher. Be careful or I might have to start referring to you as pokey jr [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm interesting. I haven't really ever learned pot equity. But surely it is correct if you are going to win a 99 dollar pot 1 out of 3 times, to call 33 dollars. Does that statement sit well with you? How does equity differ from calling a 33 dollar bet against a 99 dollar pot, with 33% chance to win?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'll try this one more time. If I can't make myself clear then please read the book I mentioned.

I have a 33% chance to win the pot. That means I will win the pot 1/3 times (one-out-of-three). I am therefore a 1:2 (one-to-two) dog. Because I am a 1:2 dog, I can call any bet amount that offers me 2:1 or better pot odds.

Lets say my opponent's bet is $45. The pot is $99. If I make the call, the pot will be $99 + $45 = $144.

Since I have a 33% chance of winning, my EV (Expected Value) is 0.33 * $144 = $47.52.

I am therefore making more than my $45 investment back from my call. On average I will gain $2.52 each time I make this call.

[drj003]

[ QUOTE ]

I have a 33% chance to win the pot. That means I will win the pot 1/3 times (one-out-of-three). I am therefore a 1:2 (one-to-two) dog. Because I am a 1:2 dog, I can call any bet amount that offers me 2:1 or better pot odds.



[/ QUOTE ]

Right....and 66 to 33 is the exact same as 2:1. So, if you had a 1 out of 3 or a 2 to 1 against(which are the exact same). Then you can call a 33 dollar bet to win a 99 dollar pot, if you had a 33 percent chance to win. You don't add your 33 dollar call to the pot which would make it 132 and than say that you can call with just a 25% chance to call. I've already read the book.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm interesting. I haven't really ever learned pot equity. But surely it is correct if you are going to win a 99 dollar pot 1 out of 3 times, to call 33 dollars. Does that statement sit well with you? How does equity differ from calling a 33 dollar bet against a 99 dollar pot, with 33% chance to win?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'll try this one more time. If I can't make myself clear then please read the book I mentioned.

I have a 33% chance to win the pot. That means I will win the pot 1/3 times (one-out-of-three). I am therefore a 1:2 (one-to-two) dog. Because I am a 1:2 dog, I can call any bet amount that offers me 2:1 or better pot odds.

Lets say my opponent's bet is $45. The pot is $99. If I make the call, the pot will be $99 + $45 = $144.

Since I have a 33% chance of winning, my EV (Expected Value) is 0.33 * $144 = $47.52.

I am therefore making more than my $45 investment back from my call. On average I will gain $2.52 each time I make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It should also be mentioned that while a call here is +EV, it is also high variance. Hero needs to be properly rolled with a solid understanding that sometimes it is correct to put money into the pot even when you suspect you have the worst of it. You make this call knowing that over the long run it will be profitable even though in the short run it may prove to be unprofitable.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
I've already read the book.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, then reread the chapter on pot odds and pot equity and Expected Value.

I have conclusively shown you with my EV calculations above that I am right.

The mistake that you are making is that you are assuming that you don't have any equity in your call. You dogmatically assume that you can not add your calling amount to the pot, when that is only true for figuring out pot odds.

You do in fact have 33% equity in your $45 call. So you do add the calling amount to the pot when you are calculating equity. And you have 33% equity in the $99 pot. Added together your total equity is larger than your call, and therefore the call is profitable.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hmm interesting. I haven't really ever learned pot equity. But surely it is correct if you are going to win a 99 dollar pot 1 out of 3 times, to call 33 dollars. Does that statement sit well with you? How does equity differ from calling a 33 dollar bet against a 99 dollar pot, with 33% chance to win?

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, I'll try this one more time. If I can't make myself clear then please read the book I mentioned.

I have a 33% chance to win the pot. That means I will win the pot 1/3 times (one-out-of-three). I am therefore a 1:2 (one-to-two) dog. Because I am a 1:2 dog, I can call any bet amount that offers me 2:1 or better pot odds.

Lets say my opponent's bet is $45. The pot is $99. If I make the call, the pot will be $99 + $45 = $144.

Since I have a 33% chance of winning, my EV (Expected Value) is 0.33 * $144 = $47.52.

I am therefore making more than my $45 investment back from my call. On average I will gain $2.52 each time I make this call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tungsten:

How big was the pot before the opponent bet 45? 44 or 99?

[Wolfram]

The pot was $54. Villain bet $45. We have 33% equity. Folding is -EV. End of story (I hope).

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot was $54. Villain bet $45. We have 33% equity. Folding is -EV. End of story. (I hope).

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just confirming your math. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Your post was slightly ambigious.