I Used to Know These Things

[kutuz_off]

[ QUOTE ]
kutuz,
where have we established its apparently neutral-EV? In fact i have seen no ev calcs from anybody.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my translation of consensus agreement that it's "very close". If it was either clearly +EV or clearly -EV, it wouldn't be close. But as it isn't, it ain't.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
kutuz,
where have we established its apparently neutral-EV? In fact i have seen no ev calcs from anybody.

[/ QUOTE ]


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.600% 35.30% 02.23% 1135594 71722.00 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 37.314% 39.78% 03.18% 1279693 102236.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 30.086% 32.42% 02.22% 1042900 71327.00 { TT }

With this for the sidepot:

11,229,080 games 14.621 secs 768,010 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.534% 56.43% 02.86% 6336089 321304.50 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 44.466% 44.61% 02.86% 5009273 321304.50 { TT }.

That's about right if MP reshoved; I think the flat call makes KK+ more likely and everything else less likely.

[Elrazor]

[ QUOTE ]
I may have MPs psychology wrong; I know some people will flat call with 77 and try to check it down or something if anyone else comes along; I just don't see him doing that for 25% of his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is alot of suposition here and i agree with this as a general statement - the bottom line is you have no reads either way on MP, so if you want to play this hand you are guessing

BTW im assuming MP had something hopeless - if he had AA you would just remember you all played the hand well and moved on??

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
he reraised the flop, i called, called the flop and jammed the turn when he checked

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming you mean he 3 bet you out of the BB PF, then bet flop and checked turn...correct?

Since you have 65BB's give or take, I don't think that calling is bad given that MP is unlikely to bluff at it since he has to show down.

The problem with raising is that you probably don't fold much that beats you and fold most that you can get another bet out of and flat calling without a pair is somewhat unlikely.

If you weren't as deep I'd muck, but here you can afford to take the chance he's flat calling something like 77-99 and would fold to a jam.

He can have AA here, but I don't think its AA as much as the typical 2+2ers thinks it is, especially in tourney's that have sat entries. (as I believe this one does now)

If he checks the flop I probably check behind unless I have improved. If he then checks the turn I'm ahead.

If he jams flop then we have a decision to make, but we'll have a bit more info than just jamming PF, and we have a chance to improve.

This is probably the worst option, but since we have some chips I think its a viable alternative, and I really don't like folding much because I really don't like to fold much and jamming costs you more chips than it gets you since the only thing he may fold that you are behind is JJ, and you may get another bet (or his stack since he has a psb left) out of 66-99 if he likes his hand on the flop. (you may be best served by betting 1/2 his stack on flop and other 1/2 on river...sometimes that works...)

Meh, I call because I have lots of chips and am not totally commited to calling the PSB on the flop if he jams likes its his job. Yes we will be getting 2-1, but if he autojams the flop its not enough.

Regards,
Woodguy

[MLG]

lftv,
i think doing the math that way is pretty pretty useless. although at least somebody is doing some math, which is sorely missed in this forum lately.

[djk123]

ok so i have no idea if im doing this right but here goes:

let's just say utg is pushing 55+,A9+,KQ and MP is calling 88+,AJ+. (these might be too loose i know)

if we shove, I would say MP is calling JJ+, AK, which ( if my math is correct) is about 43% of his range.

There is 242500 (plus antes) in the pot. If we shove, 57% of the time we will be putting in 102,500 to win 242,500 heads up vs utg with 57.4% equity

so (.574*.57)*242500 - (.426*.57)*102500=+54452.1

The other 43% of the time we will be in a 3 way all in vs utg and mp.

for the main pot we are putting in the 102500 to win 242500 but only have 27.3% equity.

so (.273*.43)*242500 - (.727*.43)*102500=-3575.45

for the side pot we're putting in 350000 to win 350000 with 33.654% equity.

so (.33654*.43)*350000 - (.66346*.43)*350000= -49201.5

so 54452.1 - 3575.45 - 49201.5= +1675.15

so according to my ranges and if my math is correct, which i doubt lol, shoving would be slightly +ev

[MLG]

djk,
i like the effort, and i think its a good start but maybe we should try to quantify mp 1 a little better. for example, if he calls the first time with AJ, he will probably fold to a shove, most likely the same with 88. Also it seems unlikely to me that he would have a hand like JJ/AK and not isolate.

[djk123]

[ QUOTE ]
djk,
i like the effort, and i think its a good start but maybe we should try to quantify mp 1 a little better. for example, if he calls the first time with AJ, he will probably fold to a shove, most likely the same with 88. Also it seems unlikely to me that he would have a hand like JJ/AK and not isolate.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree that he would fold AJ if we shoved. i think he would only be calling like JJ+, AK if we shoved. i thought i incorporated that into the math. if not, i was trying to.

[MLG]

yeah you did, i missed that line. but it doesnt account for the decreased chance of a hand like JJ/AK just calling the first time.

[djk123]

yea true. i'm not really sure how to factor that into the calcs. but btw do you remember that hand from the 1k sunday million where you flat called preflop, raised the flop, and folded turn i think? if u had anything that hand you made a pretty good laydown.