jdags seems to like his hand... WPT hand 2

[Ansky]

Everybody,

Don't respond to timex, hes joking.

[SossMan]

66/TT, that's it for me. Too much action. I call with both, fold everything else. Bet my remaining stack on the turn and let jdags shut out the FD.

Button prob has NFD which makes it a little less likely that jdags has AA. My guess is 22/66 for jdags, NFD for btn.

I'm folding AA there pretty easily since it makes a set so likely for jdags.

[Spete]

If the button is bad, and since we know that Jdags is good, I'm assuming that if we push Jdags will push and the button will fold.

The pot is ~12k and we have 6300 behind. We'll be risking 6300 to win a pot of almost 25k translating to ~25% equity needed to go.

If we give Jdags {sets, 9c8c}, we have 15% equity with aces and 30% with the NFD.

If we give Jdags {66,TT,9c8c,AcKc}, we have 23% with the ducks.

So I guess I'd vote gogogo with the NFD, fold aces. Deuces is mood dependent, I guess we're getting short (still plenty of M though) and this is as good a spot as any to stick it in.

My guess: you actually went with the NFD, Jdags pushed with {66,TT}, button folded.

[Eagles]

My posts feel really disjointed so here's my last one for now.

Nitty old man probably folded 22.

So I think Jdags range here is 66/TT and than 78c 97c 89c 45c 34c.

Meaning Ansky should fold everything except 66/TT if he has 22 well than I'm lost because I have no idea what the nitty old man folded.

[registrar]

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Give me a range for the nitty old man leading in a 5 way pot.


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Top pair, flush draw, over pair, random nonsense because he's bored? I think top pair is pretty likely. Just because you don't lead KT there into a multi-way pot doesn't mean he won't. I would suggest that nits feel happier betting than calling there.

[jlocdog]

Ansky,

Seems like a stretch to think jdags would put a 3rd bet in with any FD here. Too likely he is dominated with less then NFD and with NFD he might want to call in order to maximize off the multitude of monkeys at your table. Maybe he makes this move with NFD but I give it much less weight.

TT seems less likely as well since I think he repops you preflop. Ideal spot for him to isolate you. Especially since both of your relative positions are no bueno and having players file in after you would suck for that hand. 22 and 66 seem to fit his play. No need to mess around once BB donks and you raise. Plenty of hands will come along to stack off to him (FD's, overpairs, TPTK).

Your range is much wider then the first hand. Here you are definetly capable of raising the BB monkey to see if you can take this pot on the turn/river. The flop (minus the FD) is fairly dry and a good one for you to float. You can rep a ton of turn cards IF you are HU on turn. Your flop raise is a small investment for the upside you may have. Also a very easy fold if you face resistance to anyone.

As far as what your hand has to be to call once jdags repops....22,66,TT. I think AA=JJ more so then AA=22 here for reasons stated above on jdags hand and therefore think that hand is a fold.

[Ansky]

Hey JLoc,

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Seems like a stretch to think jdags would put a 3rd bet in with any FD here. Too likely he is dominated with less then NFD and with NFD he might want to call in order to maximize off the multitude of monkeys at your table. Maybe he makes this move with NFD but I give it much less weight.


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I disagree somewhat with this. In fact, I would expect a non nut flush draw (78cc 97cc 98cc especially) to raise here quite often as it accomplishes several objectives. First of all, it will very often get me to fold an overpair. In fact, I'd say I would fold an overpair almost always to a flop cold 3 bet here. Secondly, and perhaps equally as important, if he raises non not draws here, there is a good chance he cleans up outs, as he will often fold out bigger flush draws behind him, whereas if he initiates a call fest behind him, larger draws will come along all day.

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TT seems less likely as well since I think he repops you preflop.

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My experience with live pros tells me otherwise. They tend to be way more passive preflop, and JDags was playing relatively snug so far. In fact, I'd guess that he would be way more likely to call behind with TT than repop with it, especially given that I have a smallish stack.

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Especially since both of your relative positions are no bueno and having players file in after you would suck for that hand.

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Playing a 5 way pot 400bb deep with TT isn't so bad at all in this spot. He can very easily get paid off with a flopped set.

[ QUOTE ]
Your range is much wider then the first hand. Here you are definetly capable of raising the BB monkey to see if you can take this pot on the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]
While my range is wider, I don't think it is particularly wide. Raising here with air is pretty awful imo, as the pot is 5 way or so, and there is a very good chance someone has a good hand here... AND I have donky mc donk behind me who probably wouldnt fold T3o to a flop raise.

[ QUOTE ]
As far as what your hand has to be to call once jdags repops....22,66,TT. I think AA=JJ more so then AA=22 here for reasons stated above on jdags hand and therefore think that hand is a fold.

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I agree with this.

[adanthar]

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As far as what your hand has to be to call once jdags repops....22,66,TT. I think AA=JJ more so then AA=22 here for reasons stated above on jdags hand and therefore think that hand is a fold.

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I agree with this.

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nuh uh, because if you don't have AA on the flop it's definitely in jdags' range. also, less overcards, the FD's have 3 less outs, etc. AA is much closer to 22 than JJ, because we're only concerned with jdags' hand.

[jlocdog]

Adanthar,

My assumption was more weighted that jdags was not just calling with AA here. TT+ for that matter. If Ansky thinks it is more likely then not that he IS just calling then I would have to reconsider my post. Even then, AA seems highly unlikely to be just calling. If their positions were better (ie, jdags in CO or BT) then calling with any overpair (TT+) seems more plausible. As is though, I think AA (especially) repops preflop.

Ansky,

Playing passively this deep is one thing. Missing out on opportunities to build your stack without nutpeddling or set mining is another. Acting like TT-AA would more often then not just call with his position seems faulty to me. A smaller PP most definetly, but with larger PP's AND a guy directly to your right raising AND both your crappy position AND because you guys have been chatting and I assume he knows you're a thinking player (and thus can pull moves and make big laydowns) a raise would seem iin order.

Again though, you were their and your feel of the table is most important. If infact that is the way players are playing I question that strategy. By your post, I got the feeling that calling with big PP's is a default line by the 'pros' and given your relative position, I wonder if that is correct/optimal/justified/ect..

[TCA]

This hand is sick. You could go with nut flush draw here but I wouldnt advised it, you still have chips and can play your stack from there. Whether you would be getting the right price or not to make it is going to depend on far too many factors, best situation is clearly both people have sets and no clubs out there plus you need both callers to give you the right equity (I rushed the maths but I think that is right). So I think thats a pretty easy fold.

I dont see that AA can be good here and even if it is very unlikely to be favourite, so I would fold that pretty quick.

From the reads it seems like JDAG probably has a set/big draw here, Button could have the nut flush draw. Not sure what BB hand, surely he has to r/r QQ+ here preflop. So maybe JJ or a big draw. Im not sure he would be folding 22 here, surely if he leads he is looking to be raised and then come back over the top and I doubt he would bail.

Now onto 22, this is the sickest spot of the lot. From the way the hand played out I just dont see Jdags having an overpair here, could be AA but I doubt it. I just dont think I could find a fold here, there are plenty of combo draws we beat and seems like a good chance clubs are out there, and hey we have 1 out if not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I think soon you should post what you have and let people have another go since it obviously affects what other players can have here, might be able to come up with a more constructive answer it that situation.