Naked Arbs vs Pinny thread

[TheOffice]

My results have been much better since I cut the arbing part out of that equation. I just bet the 'soft line' and hope for the best of luck. Seems to be working so far, just betting by numbers and don't know jack about the sport itself (NBA p.ex.). Short term experiences only however (approx. 130 bets), still very interesting results.

[knicknut]

Well see where you stand all time at Pinny (on arbed bets)... if you're down all time, this system would have worked wonders for you. If you were up at Pinny... well... variance is a bitch.

[TheOffice]

I was/ still am down BIG TIME on Pinny, Matchbook and Mansion, where I used to arb those bets out. Started arbing during World Cup when I also used Betfair mostly.

These accounts were busted all the time whereas my bookie accounts had a cash overflow and I couldn't cash out for a while on some... after I've made the switch, no more problems (so far) and hoping to get back to even with the above mentioned accounts. If I manage to do that, it'll have been a really nice year of betting.

[Homer]

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My results have been much better since I cut the arbing part out of that equation. I just bet the 'soft line' and hope for the best of luck.

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That doesn't make any sense unless you have a huge bankroll and are maxing out the soft line with your straight bet (or are just using SIA with a max bet of $220, hehe). Arbing has nothing to do with the straight bet, it's just some extra gravy with zero risk involved.

For example, let's say the two lines are -110 and +120. Suppose Kelly (or Kelly/4 or whatever you use) dictates a straight bet of $500 to win $600. Also, suppose that the max bet allowed on both sides is $2000. So, you bet the remaining $1500 to win $1800 on the soft line of +120, and balance it by betting $1728 to win $1571 on the -110 line to balance out the arb. All you are doing with arbing is making sure you aren't leaving any free money on the table.

You can look at it two ways. One is that you are profiting an additional $72 on the arb portion, with zero risk involved. It is completely separate from your straight bet of $500 to win $600. Alternatively, you could say that you are effectively risking $429 to win $672 and have now what is essentially a +156 line.

[TomG]

Double check my logic here...

Suppose, you locate a line on Pinny priced at +114/-124 against a square book line of -110 on both sides? You could bet both sides and lock in an arb with a 0.90% return on investment. Or you could simply bet the -110 line knowing the "true" price from Pinny is -124.

At -124 terms you need to pick winners at a rate of at least 55.4% to break even. We assume this is the "true" line. But we get it at -110 meaning we only have to win at 52.4% to break even. Thus our edge is the difference between the two or about 3%?

Would then the difference between 3% and 0.90% show the value of naked arbs versus covered arbs?

[ImNew]

You can bet more than $220 on SIA if you have separete accounts.

And yes if you can trade 4k on each arb you'll be rich in no time, but I wonder what site would give you soft line + max. limit >$2k?

I totally agree with Homer on how arbing makes you more money or change the line, but actually the main concept is that free money is always good regardless.

[TheOffice]

Homer, you are absolutely correct about that and it wouldn't cross my mind to just lay off profits easily like that. If there was a line like +120/-110, I'd definitely be looking into taking it with max. stakes possible.

On the other hand: I consider an arb to be -110/+110 for the purpose of betting a side, total, whatever. I'm not specifically looking for arbing opportunities like the one you just mentioned, but am used to betting 0-3c arbs for the purpose of bonus whoring.

Basically I don't bet on arbs so much, but take lines and their implied positive value. The thing I might consider doing is maxing out each bet and arbing off the portion I don't want to actually bet.

Basically I hardly find arbs as such (1-2c maybe, but that's just not worth the hassle and risk involved to me on max stakes of maybe $500), but consider a Pinny offer of +110 or a 1pt moving line that I can still get at another book to be suitable for my purposes.

Probably you're right and I could be making more money off this whole episode when maxing out bets, but the secret is being super quick and flexible. My bankroll doesn't allow it to keep five figures at seventeen different books and two exchanges I use. Most likely I just don't have enough money for proper arbing, and even less skill to find the correct bets.

[Homer]

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You can bet more than $220 on SIA if you have separete accounts.

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We could also get rich by robbing banks. Note that I'm not opposed to gnoming the scum that is SIA, just saying that it's not exactly a legit method.

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And yes if you can trade 4k on each arb you'll be rich in no time, but I wonder what site would give you soft line + max. limit >$2k?

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I've hit multiple 10-cent or greater arbs for 5k a side with Sportsbook. Also have done the same for lesser amounts with books that aren't notoriously soft, just were slow to move on that occasion.

[Homer]

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Homer, you are absolutely correct about that and it wouldn't cross my mind to just lay off profits easily like that. If there was a line like +120/-110, I'd definitely be looking into taking it with max. stakes possible.

On the other hand: I consider an arb to be -110/+110 for the purpose of betting a side, total, whatever. I'm not specifically looking for arbing opportunities like the one you just mentioned, but am used to betting 0-3c arbs for the purpose of bonus whoring.

Basically I don't bet on arbs so much, but take lines and their implied positive value. The thing I might consider doing is maxing out each bet and arbing off the portion I don't want to actually bet.

Basically I hardly find arbs as such (1-2c maybe, but that's just not worth the hassle and risk involved to me on max stakes of maybe $500), but consider a Pinny offer of +110 or a 1pt moving line that I can still get at another book to be suitable for my purposes.

Probably you're right and I could be making more money off this whole episode when maxing out bets, but the secret is being super quick and flexible. My bankroll doesn't allow it to keep five figures at seventeen different books and two exchanges I use. Most likely I just don't have enough money for proper arbing, and even less skill to find the correct bets.

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Right, I agree with everything you're saying here. If Pinny has +105/-115, the true line is +110/-110, so if you can get +113 at a non-Pinny book it's a good straight bet even though it would be a -2 cent arb with Pinny.

[murphstahoe]

$11 - Oakland/Oral Roberts under 140 -110 at WSEX - win

3-2-1 +$2