25NL -- QQ vs UTG raise from mouse, how's my line?

[ipushufold]

The preflop call is good in my eyes. This guy is raising only 1.58% of his hands for 160 hands (enough to get a view on him since it's all about his cards that matters when he decide to raise, and he is UTG).

I like the flop call too, I don't raise it here, players with AA and KK will never fold and likely come over the top or call you down. Are you disciplined to fold to a reraise even if you have an overpair as nice as QQ?

His turn bet looks weak and kind of scared. Perhaps he will fold thinking we called with a jack. I raise too. Slightly bigger tho. Around 6.5$. Now that he calls your 4$ bet I check behind the river. If me made it somewhat bigger on turn, I'd be more inclined to push the river.

He will call us on river with AA and KK plenty here unless we make him play for all of his stack.

[corsakh]

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The preflop call is good in my eyes. This guy is raising only 1.58% of his hands for 160 hands (enough to get a view on him since it's all about his cards that matters when he decide to raise, and he is UTG).

I like the flop call too, I don't raise it here, players with AA and KK will never fold and likely come over the top or call you down. Are you disciplined to fold to a reraise even if you have an overpair as nice as QQ?

His turn bet looks weak and kind of scared. Perhaps he will fold thinking we called with a jack. I raise too. Slightly bigger tho. Around 6.5$. Now that he calls your 4$ bet I check behind the river. If me made it somewhat bigger on turn, I'd be more inclined to push the river.

He will call us on river with AA and KK plenty here unless we make him play for all of his stack.

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I think you should post more. Welcome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Maple Leafs]

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I think you should post more. Welcome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Agreed, thanks for the thoughtful post ipushufold.

[SmallPotJeff]

::Grunch::

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River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

I have to bet here (yes?), but how much? If he has AA or KK he could be willing to lay it down. Of xourse if he has AK I'm actually betting for value. How much do you throw out there?

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Let me get this straight - you're hoping to get AA or KK to lay down, but you're hoping A hi will call for value? I sincerely hope something strikes you as off about this reasoning.

And no, you do not have to bet there. There is no value there. He called turn when the board paired - he's playing it like he has AA or KK. If he has AK, he will not call for any amount, if he has AA or KK you're going to have to risk a lot to have a good chance of him folding - chances are he'll call and you'll feel the fool for betting with a marginal hand.

I check the river all day and pray for TT or AK.

[Maple Leafs]

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Let me get this straight - you're hoping to get AA or KK to lay down, but you're hoping A hi will call for value? I sincerely hope something strikes you as off about this reasoning.

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Of course. I realize I can't have it both ways, so I'm wondering which path I should be looking to follow here.

Consensus seems to be: neither, check behind.

[Leviathan101]

betting here is terrible. You fold everything you beat, and everything that beats you calls. I would not assume any player at this limit can fold AA or KK without an Ace on the flop.

[Jouster777]

Maybe he isn't positionally aware but I usually cut PFR % in half with a raise from UTG. This means he is raising &lt;1% of his hands which equates to AA/KK only.

I realize that the sample size is small so numbers may be off but anyone giving a range &gt; AA/KK/AK is ignoring the "best available data".

The turn bet did plenty to "investigate" for AK. Trying to fold AA/KK is horrible spew. Check behind on river.

[AliasMrJones]

An important consideration here since we're dealing with post-flop decisions is postflop aggro. Unfortunately you only posted his pre-flop stats.

I'd usually RR in this spot, but given his very low PFR, a call PF seems OK to me. I like calling the turn rather than raising. Given his PFR you're likely WA/WB here and I think I'd prefer to keep the pot small. It seems unlikely he has a decent draw. I'd then bet about 40% pot on river as a value bet. (It will look like a J- value bet to opponent.

As played, I think I check behind. You made your play on the turn and he called. He looks like he wants to go to showdown and you don't beat anything that he'll call with.

[Maple Leafs]

Good feedback everyone.

As it was played, I did make about a half-pot river bet. Will rethink for next time.