2/4 Black Tens

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you donk AQ UI into the PF 3bettor?

First off let me be clear by saying I'm not saying I would. I'm saying lots of people do.

Secondly, you do it for exactly what happened...your by the PFRR and get your hand protected when he raises. I wouldn't do it. I think it's stupid and doesn't really protect the hand. But I see lots of people that do.

I also think you're underestimating the chances that CO will raise that bet with a hand like AK to try to drive players out and buy a free river look. Especially if he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

If you think there's a good chance he has QQ why are you 3betting the flop?

You shouldn't automatically assume he has QQ when he raises. The problem is, when he just calls your three bet and the Ace hits on the turn, now one of two things is going on...
1) He probably didn't like that Ace so much.
2) He probably loved it and has improved to a better hand.

Bet and fold to a raise by CO. Pot is very big now and worth winning. Not a big deal bet-folding. But you're narrowing CO's hand range, and that Ace should help you clear things up quickly.

You're looking at the hand in a vacuum after it's been played out. Look at it action by action and think through at each point in time what's going on or could be going on.
- You get a standard continuation raise on the flop bet.
- You three-bet and he just calls which means he can't feel overly comfortable about his hand.
- The Ace on the turn gives you the ability to represent that you don't care about it via betting, and could now scare a better hand out.
- His turn call of a bet indicates he can't be comfortable about his hand and you might move him off it. His raise on the turn says you're beat, time to lay it down.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

psuasskicker,
you are representing an over pair on the flop and an A on the turn. Your turn bet would be very transparent.
I would not fold QQ or KK to your turn bet. You are betting the turn so you could get raised and release your hand? I don't like this play. Nobody is folding a better hand. With an A on the turn you are pretty much dead.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]

You're looking at the hand in a vacuum after it's been played out. Look at it action by action and think through at each point in time what's going on or could be going on.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you’re saying I’m being results-oriented I take offence to that. One, it’s something I think I do a good job of not doing in general. Two, if anything I’m being anti-results oriented given the turn action, it’s pretty obvious villain has KK-JJ. It really sounds like you’re the one looking at the hand in a vacuum when you defend the flop & turn action by essentially saying “he didn’t 4bet” – basically you’re 3betting the flop & betting the turn to find out where you’re at – seems like expensive information.

[ QUOTE ]

- His turn call of a bet indicates he can't be comfortable about his hand and you might move him off it. His raise on the turn says you're beat, time to lay it down.


[/ QUOTE ]

I’m not really interested in villian’s psychological comfort level at that moment. I think if he calls the turn (which he will a lot of the time IMO) he’s going to showdown whether he likes his hand or not and you are toast.

[chief444]

Excellent first hand post. Really.

I think that the flop is close. I mean...the bet yes. The 3-bet is a bit borderline since you're usually behind CO at this point but I don't think it's horrible. I also don't mind just calling and reevaluating on the turn.

The turn I think when you have 3 opponents going 3 bets on a 449 two suited flop and the ace completing the flush draw falls checking is fine. Even though two of those opponents are obviously too loose...and it's possible CO will fold JJ-KK...CO will definitely not fold those half of the time and may not even fold without the heart in this pot.

I like the river raise. Just calling makes it way too easy for CO to overcall with KK/QQ or maybe even JJ getting 17:1 and likely being aware of SB's LAG tendencies. And you're likely ahead of SB enough to make it worthwhile.

[psuasskicker]

you are representing an over pair on the flop and an A on the turn. Your turn bet would be very transparent.

No, I think you're representing that an Ace - which could easily have just killed your hand - doesn't bother you all that much. Especially more powerful since the A completed the flush draw. You're telling me if you're sitting there with QQ, now that the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell you feel just as comfortable about your hand as you did one street ago?

MORE importantly - the point I was trying to get across - you're telling me you're more comfortable about your hand here than you are when the flop 3-bettor checks the turn through and then raises the river bet from a chronic bluffer?

The point I'm making is, to maximize the chance of knocking CO off a better hand, you need to bet the turn. Will it knock him off? Maybe not. But it's certainly got a better chance than the move that was pulled here, which is so blatantly transparent it's almost amusing.

basically you’re 3betting the flop & betting the turn to find out where you’re at – seems like expensive information.

So then if you're saying anything other than "fold to the flop raise" I have no idea what it is...

Cause really, what else is there? I guess you can peel for a T given the size of the pot, but you're basically saying once you get raised on the flop you're at most committing one more small bet to this pot and that's it, and I think that's no good.

I’m not really interested in villian’s psychological comfort level at that moment. I think if he calls the turn (which he will a lot of the time IMO) he’s going to showdown whether he likes his hand or not and you are toast.

But you think he gets moved off the hand by your checking through on the turn and then raising the river bluff?

I'm not saying my way works. I'm saying it's better than the way the hand was played. The OP play was an incredibly fancy play that will ONLY work if you occasionally make this play with 99/AA. It looks great on paper, but when you put yourself inside the head of a reasonable opponent who will take two seconds to think about what's going on in the hand, it's so obvious what you're doing it has almost no chance of working.

Say what you will, but if I'm CO here, I'm never folding a better hand to you on that river raise. Never.

and it's possible CO will fold JJ-KK...CO will definitely not fold those half of the time and may not even fold without the heart in this pot.

He doesn't need to fold it half the time. This pot is massive. He only needs to fold it about 8% of the time. 10% - 15% if you consider that SB will sometimes have you beat, more if CO will outdraw you with a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Point being he doesn't need to fold it often for it to be a good bet.

- C -

[chief444]

I disagree that the turn play you suggest works. For one thing CO knows you don't have an ace. For another thing he has a heart half of the time. And more importantly and definitely something you seem to be overlooking...THIS POT IS 4-HANDED. It does you no good to fold a 2nd best hand.

However, once the turn checks through things are looking better. Yes, it's true that CO will realize that your raise is trying to knock him out. However...he'll still realize that you do sometimes have him beat and also the raise cuts down his odds considerably and he still has to have BOTH you and SB beat.

You seem to be thinking about this entire hand as if it's HU with CO. You can't just ignore the other two opponents. Neither can CO.

[psuasskicker]

You mean you're actually that worried about the other two? I think the times you're beaten by either of these (without a four-flush on the river) is ridiculsouly low in comparison to being behind CO.

I also think that the same reasoning is why CO can't be comfortable with his hand on the turn when you bet into him. He has two other people to beat, and he can't feel that comfortable about QQ when a guy three bets him on the flop and then bets into an Ace and three opponents.

This move won't work all the time, but I go back to my original statement which is if you want a better chance of winning this hand, you stick in a bet on the turn.

Do you think that this hand gets won by raising the river after checking the turn?

If so, why do you think CO would feel less comfortable about his hand on the river than he would feel when facing your bet on the turn?

- C -

[Pominos]

Lots of replies (thanks!), and I would like to clarify some things. I think it is highly possible that CO has no idea who SB is. CO was pretty new to the table and I havn't seen him before. The TAGish read on him was more of an 'above average' read from seing him play about two orbits. (Could have been clearer on that.)

This makes the flop 3-bet quite easy I think. Lots of decent players seem to auto raise my bet here with.

Anyway if CO did have the read on SB, why didn't he bet the turn? The only one that havn't shown weakness on the turn is SB (and acctually he has too).

After CO checks the turn I belive it is obvlius he's afraid of something. And few afraid players would call a raise on the river.

psuasskicker: would you check behind the turn in your version of the hand?

[psuasskicker]

I think it is highly possible that CO has no idea who SB is. CO was pretty new to the table and I havn't seen him before. The TAGish read on him was more of an 'above average' read from seing him play about two orbits.

I think this actually completely changes the composition of the hand. If CO truly doesn't know what SB is, then your way of playing it has much more merit...

That said, I think the reason it has much more merit is more because of SB than because of you. I put myself in CO's shoes and look at the river bet, your raise, and assuming a fold from the player between you and CO. At that point, I feel fairly confident I have you beat, and I don't know about SB. I could easily be three-bet, and possibly capped by you if I've read you wrong, although I don't think you can cap the river unless you have me beat (again, assume I'm on a hand like QQ or JJ).

I actually think it's the key to the hand. If SB has only made a few of his bet downs while CO is at the table, he could chalk it up to nothing but a couple nice runs of cards. But if there's been a showdown where he's bet down garbage, and/or he's seen SB for ~20 hands with stats around 50/30/4, then it's not really hard to suspect this river bet from him is meaningless. I really think that in order for your move to work, CO truly must have seen too few hands to really have any incling of a read that SB can pull this move. He's getting about 9 to 1 to call in a HUGE pot. Knowing he's almost for sure got you beat, if he suspects SB is a chronic bluffer, it could be easy to take this hand to showdown.

psuasskicker: would you check behind the turn in your version of the hand?

Not really sure what you mean here. You mean if I were CO with QQ would I check behind? If I had Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I would for sure be checking behind that turn. I still think I'm best enough of the time that a bet might have merit, but I'd probably vomit all over my screen if I got check-raised when I could have had a free card that can really help me.

If I didn't have the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I probably bet and fold to a cr.

And if you meant in your position on the turn, I would still bet unless you knew that CO really had no idea who SB was. I think that can also be dangerous since CO could easily have hands data-mined on SB, or have played with him before. I know it's pretty rare at this point for me to sit down at a 5/10 or 10/20 table and have more than one opponent that I don't have 50+ hands on, and more than 4 opponents that I don't have 200+ hands on.

- C -

[psuasskicker]

If I didn't have the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I probably bet and fold to a cr.

I'm gonna follow this up (rather than edit) and note that the pot is so big, I don't think I can fold for a cr when I could have four clean outs and pretty much for sure two outs to the best boat, getting probably 18 - 20 to 1 on the call.

- C -

[Pominos]

[ QUOTE ]
I know it's pretty rare at this point for me to sit down at a 5/10 or 10/20 table and have more than one opponent that I don't have 50+ hands on, and more than 4 opponents that I don't have 200+ hands on.


[/ QUOTE ]

Think this might explain why you, in my opinion, over estimate CO. This is 2/4 and I think the regular 'decent' player checks this turn because he thinks he is behind, and thus wouldn't call a river raise very often