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#21
12-07-2006, 03:06 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) 
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#22
12-07-2006, 03:14 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) [/ QUOTE ] Why would you want a 2:1 dog to fold?
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#23
12-07-2006, 03:17 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) [/ QUOTE ] Why would you want a 2:1 dog to fold? [/ QUOTE ] Let me rephrase is somewhat - you're so short that you MUST take evry available edge and try to double-up. 2:1 is a pretty big edge that I'll take at almost any point in the tournament. Optimize your line TO PRICE THESE DOGS IN, because overpairs do not fold, like, ever, and neither should you. So at least try and price in (rather than push out) the hands that you actually DO beat.
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#24
12-07-2006, 03:17 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) [/ QUOTE ] Why would you want a 2:1 dog to fold? [/ QUOTE ] If he is getting 2:1 on his call and I am better than the field I would rather avoid higher variance CEV neutral situations....
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#25
12-07-2006, 03:19 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) [/ QUOTE ] Why would you want a 2:1 dog to fold? [/ QUOTE ] Let me rephrase is somewhat - you're so short that you MUST take evry available edge and try to double-up. 2:1 is a pretty big edge that I'll take at almost any point in the tournament. Optimize your line TO PRICE THESE DOGS IN, because overpairs do not fold, like, ever, and neither should you. So at least try and price in (rather than push out) the hands that you actually DO beat. [/ QUOTE ] If he was getting like 1.5:1 or even 1.8:1 calling an open push I would agree - here he is getting better than 1.9:1 on a call which makes a 2:1 edge basically CEV neutral
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#26
12-07-2006, 03:22 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
You are in push or fold mode PF IMO, so I don't like the 3x BB raise. Now we have a couple of callers and a decent flop for us. I'm pushing here and if someone outflopped me, so be it, but I think it is very +EV to push this flop.
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#28
12-07-2006, 03:43 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
shove pre shove flop
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#29
12-07-2006, 03:54 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Pre-flop, I play it like you did. The flop was a very good one for us. Our money is going in here. So check, and hope villain takes a stab at it. This way you get more value when villain has missed. (Which he probably will have a lot of the time) [/ QUOTE ] Do we really want to price him in here if he has two overcards? If CL takes a stab here he almost certainly isn't folding and it is a minor disaster if he checks behind - I prefer just pushing here [/ QUOTE ] 2 overs are a 3:1 dog to you now. You DEFINITELY want to price them in. [/ QUOTE ] Ok I am being an ubernit here - 2 overs are anywhere from about a 72/28 dog to about a 2/1 dog here due to (possible - not mentioned in OP) backdoor straight, flush, and board pairing again over your 7s outs and villain gets almost 2/1 (pot 4950 - you have 5400 left) on our open push so while you are right purely CEV wise I think it is closer than you make it sound - if the other players were really bad I would probably rather have overcards fold here especially overs that are about a 2/1 dog (QJs for instance) [/ QUOTE ] Why would you want a 2:1 dog to fold? [/ QUOTE ] Let me rephrase is somewhat - you're so short that you MUST take evry available edge and try to double-up. 2:1 is a pretty big edge that I'll take at almost any point in the tournament. Optimize your line TO PRICE THESE DOGS IN, because overpairs do not fold, like, ever, and neither should you. So at least try and price in (rather than push out) the hands that you actually DO beat. [/ QUOTE ] If he was getting like 1.5:1 or even 1.8:1 calling an open push I would agree - here he is getting better than 1.9:1 on a call which makes a 2:1 edge basically CEV neutral [/ QUOTE ] Ok, I see where your confusion is. From the FTOP perspective our opponent is significantly behind on this flop and would make a mistake putting ANY money in the pot, like calling our shove would be a mistake for him. If we check-push - he'll be priced in and may not even make a FTOP mistake by calling. HOWEVER, he already made a mistake by betting this flop in the first place, and our check caused him to make that mistake. Also, I will take a higher-variance almost-neutral cEV line VERY VERY OFTEN in a tournament, unless I have so many chips that it doesn't make sense to risk them and I can wait / find better spots with a high degree of certainty.
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#30
12-08-2006, 07:11 PM
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Re: 10/180 27 left, what to do with 77 utg?
I appreciate all the responses. I think my best choice in this case would have been folding preflop. Though I had to make something happen soon, there were enough players at my table who I could still cripple, if not actually knock out, that I could have waited for a better spot with better table position.
I think I was thinking like a limit cash game player which at the moment is hurting my MTT play. I simply raised with the 77 not really thinking of what I wanted to happen next. Other than hitting a set, I'm setting myself up for a fairly tough decision that could have been avoided. Well, I did push after the flop and got instacalled by the other player who held 99 who probably just thought I had overs (and to his delight he was a 95% favorite instead of 75% give or take).
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