400NL Full Ring - I river a Boat and villain shoves for 2.5buyins?

[Entity]

Couldn't he pretty easily be trying to bet $94, valuebetting J9s, 44, etc?

I've mostly stuck with $4006m, but I'd call here in a flash.

Rob

[chirpy]

against a good player i think we're only beating a bluff (a big one?!) or a misclick here - easier said than done to fold though

[Bigfoot]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL @ rdegs being a nit and set miner. I don't see him having anything worse except 44 once in a while and that's doubtful here IMO.

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This is 100% correct. Wow at anyone saying this is an easy call. This is an auto muck vs. rdegs. His hand range is exactly 44, 1010 or 77. He never, ever has worse than 44 here and even then he's rarely overbet pushing 2.5 buyins with that.

[Kilillan]

A good player would also bet/3bet the nuts here, very few people would open push the river with a hand that beats us.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a misclick

[jlkrusty]

His play is bizarre, and you're obviously going to have huge variance one way or the other. You have to win somewhere around 45% of the time to make this call profitable. Here's how I analyze his hands:

77: wouldn't he have bet the flop? Or does he typically slow play? Plus, he can't think you'd call his all in--he'd never put you on a full house, and he's eaten up all the sevens.

TT: he probably does check the flop. Again, however, you've under represented your own hand. How can he think you'd call that with anything except 88, 87, and 77. Maybe he's gunning for this possibility and just moves all in.

44: Ugh. If he makes this type of overbet, he is only being called by winning hands. Is he hoping you call with A7 or something? I highly doubt it.


87: some possibility. With this hand, he figures you don't have TT or T7 (since you probably would have raised with it). So, the only hand he fears is 88 (the hand you have). Maybe he would take this risk.

XX: Other pocket pairs like 99, JJ, etc. are just pure bluffs. Unless you've seen him make all-in bluff moves on other hands, the chance of this is very low.

??: misclick with J9 or something. Doubtful, but a small possibility.

After thinking about it, TT or 87 seem to make the most sense. Add in a few 77 and I think he beats you more than 55% of the time.

Against most players, I would insta call. But, against this guy, you might find a fold. Tough spot. I think it really hinges on whether you think he is capable of making a bluff like this. If I was in the actual game and on the spot, I'd probably call.

I'm guessing you did call and he showed 77 or TT, right?

[TalentedTom]

100% fold

[Bigfoot]

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A good player would also bet/3bet the nuts here, very few people would open push the river with a hand that beats us.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a misclick

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In general this is all true, but this is never a misclick with rdegs and vs. an unknown he would deifnitely overbet push the nuts hoping it's suspicious enough that you'd call off with some sort of overpair. This is such an opponent specific hand and with this opponent its nearly 100% of the time nuts/2nd nuts.

[Equal]

It doesnt seem like anyone has mentioned this, but call preflop, not raise. It's an adjustment that all us 6-max players have to make when playing full-ring - toning down the preflop aggression.

As played, if you raise preflop, then by all means bet the flop.

[TalentedTom]

against rdegs i think for about 5 sec and fold

[MTBlue]

This looks a ton like a misclick. He probably tried to bet 100 and ended up with 1000. I assume he is sane and set miners don't get paid by open shoving for 9x pot. We are even money if he open pushes all his boats and with misclick equity assuming he is value betting 65s, J9s or 76s and has accidentally moved allin. It's a pretty clear call. Just expect some variance.