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#21
10-10-2006, 02:01 PM
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Re: another edition of How Many Bets?
The math is pretty easy actually. At least if you were to start the hand on the river. It gets more complex with multiple betting rounds. So on the river you lose to AA(1), 66(3) and 88(3). There are 990 ways to make a hand and you lose to seven or .007% of all hands. So what you do is go...
.007 < .4^x where x is the combined number of raises that both players should put in. In this case x < 8 but the problem is that you have to consider all streets in a game with multiple betting rounds. It also assumes that your opponent plays according to game theory. Consider... a) Would he call the flop with a flush? b) Is he going to cap the turn with a flush? c) Could he have AA? When you add it all up against a bad passibe player it looks like going 5 bets on the big streets is about right. 
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#24
10-10-2006, 04:30 PM
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Re: another edition of How Many Bets?
[ QUOTE ]
There are 990 ways to make a hand and you lose to seven or .007% of all hands. [/ QUOTE ] Why care about the 990 ways a hand is made? Why not eliminate the unlikely and the impossible? Maybe I am confused about what constitutes a "made hand". I get why the .4 is used. Because only the top 40% of hands should be bet and each raise eliminates the bottom 60%. But again, why use all hands?
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#25
10-10-2006, 04:35 PM
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Re: another edition of How Many Bets?
I think if villain is slowplaying, villain would be more likely to have KXh or maybe even QXh, even though he is in good position to raise the flop. Also it's concievable to think villain would slowplay 66 afraid of another heart.
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#26
10-10-2006, 10:03 PM
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Re: another edition of How Many Bets?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] There are 990 ways to make a hand and you lose to seven or .007% of all hands. [/ QUOTE ] Why care about the 990 ways a hand is made? Why not eliminate the unlikely and the impossible? Maybe I am confused about what constitutes a "made hand". I get why the .4 is used. Because only the top 40% of hands should be bet and each raise eliminates the bottom 60%. But again, why use all hands? [/ QUOTE ] As I was saying it just applies to one round of betting. Say that you and your opponent are given a number from 1-1,000,000 at random. You get 999,999 and your opponents plays perfectly. How many bets should you go? That is what I'm driving at. Answer in white... <font color="white">15 </font> You can oftentimes apply it in LHE though it is somewhat tougher due to the multiple betting rounds. Still though either check/calling or check/raising the river is the right play. Bet/3-betting or capping the river can't be correct.
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#27
10-11-2006, 04:53 AM
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Re: another edition of How Many Bets?
Raise + fold to the inevitable 5-bet for metagame reasons.
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