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#21
08-18-2005, 03:50 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Conclusion: Mahatma has Q-J making a straight [/ QUOTE ] I've never seen such a simple conclusion derive from such a convoluted analysis (culminating here: "Anyway these hands are far more less likely than A-K, K-Q, K-J. (And if mahatma holds Q-J itīs more likely for him to believe hero holds A-K)" You're assuming a whole bunch of stuff about what's going on in Mahatma's mind and how he perceives your play, when all you need to concentrate on is this: You're against a guy who just made an allin-overbet into a pot where you hold top-2 pair. Your opponent is well known to push a wide variety of hands here, many of which are not the nuts and dont have you beat. I really don't understand how people can advocate a fold here. [/ QUOTE ] 1. I didnīt mean that "itīs more likely for him to belive hero holds A-K", but simply that itīs more likely that hero holds A-K if mahatma himself holds Q-J. Maybe it doesnīt matter. 2. If mahatma is well known to push a wide variety of hands then it could be like I earlier posted a call (read my reply again). I assumed he didnīt push allin overbets often enough to make the call EV+. I think Hero only beats a bluff. 
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#23
08-18-2005, 04:11 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] he is either bluffing and has dick... or he has the nuts. [/ QUOTE ] So he never has KT, K3, K5, A3, A5, and AT (etc) in addition to the times he's bluffing? If I knew many of my opponents would fold AK to my allin, I'd be pushing those hands as well as many 1-pair hands in Mahatma's seat. [ QUOTE ] on this board, he has the nuts more often then not. [/ QUOTE ] What is it about this board that makes the nuts more likely? I'm not disareeing with you necessarily, I'm just curious why you make the claim. [/ QUOTE ] it'd be unusual for hero to call with something that two pair beats. villian would want to value bet two pair here. his line doesnt look like a set. he is moving in on the A, a potentially strong card for hero. i am sure he is bluffing some of the time here, but calling is probally -EV IMO. youd just have to make a read in a situation like this. but if mahatma thinks hero has AK, then i dont think he would bluff here. but still, the guy is fearless and will bluff any situation. its tough. hes a tough cookie. i fold.
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#24
08-18-2005, 04:29 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i would fold the river without thinking about it much. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain to me why that doesn't constitute textbook weak-tight play? [/ QUOTE ] there's a solid chance hero has the nuts in this case, or at least a very strong hand that he'd like to see a showdown with. prahlad is smart because he bluffs when a bluff is right. he's not some retard lag throwing a party. on a different board, this is a lameduck/pick up bluff for sure, here i think folding is in order. fim
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#25
08-18-2005, 05:48 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
shane,
i side with kkf. i dont think this is a value bet especially because AK is a hand mahatma probably expects his opponents to have and to call with in this spot. I think if you call him and win he'll have a hand like J9o here or something. A river card like that completes so many hands the hero can have, it just seems so unlikely that mahatma is value betting a 2 pair on this board. Id even be surprised if he had a set, but thats just me.
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#26
08-18-2005, 06:25 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
UB 50/100 NL Hold'em Random Player A is at seat 0 with $4648. Hero is at seat 3 with $12034.50. Random Player B is at seat 5 with $13425. Random Player C is at seat 6 with $9100. Mahatma is at seat 7 with $17187. The button is at seat 5. Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG Folds, Hero raises to $350, Button folds, SB folds, BB (Mahatma) calls Flop: ($750) 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Mahatma checks. Hero bets $500. Mahatma calls. Turn: ($1750) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Mahatma bets $1700. Hero calls. River: ($5150) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Mahatma goes all-in for $14587. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] Probably ought to raise that turn. Anyway the ace could be a scare card for a lot of your likely holdings so he could be bluffing because of that. On the other hand if he thinks you'd just call with AK on the turn his bet means QJ. It's probably QJ. Save your ten grand.
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#27
08-18-2005, 06:31 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
I think it is relatively close with SR and the texture of the specific game would dictate the call or fold.
Completely cold, with no in-game reads, I fold. This is exactly how he would play QJ.
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#28
08-18-2005, 07:01 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
when all you need to concentrate on is this: You're against a guy who just made an allin-overbet into a pot where you hold top-2 pair. Your opponent is well known to push a wide variety of hands here, many of which are not the nuts and dont have you beat. [/ QUOTE ] I dont play that high (yet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) but this doesnt make sense. Not many people can outplay Mahatma but many think in way described above. He is not an idiot and its probably impossible to figure out what he have here. What we know is that he overbet a pot 1.2xtimes so if we call it one time in two (slightly less often) we wont be bluffed out. As other posters pointed out its either bluff or nuts; calling frequency indicated calling in almost 50% of cases to not be bluffed out of the hand; Villain is probably much better than us and is certainly better than us in this kind of situations; why not look at your watch and only make a call if number of seconds is 2xN. Best wishes (edited after seeing stack sizes)
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#30
08-18-2005, 07:29 AM
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Re: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] i would fold the river without thinking about it much. [/ QUOTE ] Can you explain to me why that doesn't constitute textbook weak-tight play? [/ QUOTE ] there's a solid chance hero has the nuts in this case, or at least a very strong hand that he'd like to see a showdown with. prahlad is smart because he bluffs when a bluff is right. he's not some retard lag throwing a party. on a different board, this is a lameduck/pick up bluff for sure, here i think folding is in order. fim [/ QUOTE ] BINGO. There's your correct analysis.. Searched through the entire thread and finally found some logic. Prahlad knows when to bluff and knows what to push it on. When A-K, A-Q or a set is a real possibility for Hero here, Friedman isn't bluffing. I'm nearly certain Prahlad has Q-J.
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