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#22
09-01-2006, 02:38 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Because if he caps, it probably means a set or a str8 and you don't have odds to draw to your set even if you believe he doesn't have str8. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he either has a set or a straight, you're going to need some SERIOUS pot odds to draw to your set, regardless of your estimation of the chances he's holding a straight vs. a set. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think I do but kind of vaguely. It would be great if you elaborate it a bit. In this hand though I don't want to assume anything, that's why I'm not raising. 
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#23
09-01-2006, 03:07 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Because if he caps, it probably means a set or a str8 and you don't have odds to draw to your set even if you believe he doesn't have str8. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he either has a set or a straight, you're going to need some SERIOUS pot odds to draw to your set, regardless of your estimation of the chances he's holding a straight vs. a set. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think I do but kind of vaguely. It would be great if you elaborate it a bit. In this hand though I don't want to assume anything, that's why I'm not raising. [/ QUOTE ] Without considering whether our 3 bet gets capped (on a side note: do you guys really worry about getting capped everytime you 3 bet?) looking at the hand I think my reasoning on the turn would go somthing like this: 1 - our Qs are probably good 2 - even so they are vulnerable 3 - it really seems like UTG+1 is drawing to something 4 - I should raise to get him out Maybe this reasoning is flawed but I would just hate to let UTG+1 tag along with a hand like A7s! Or am I way off and this is not a 'protect your hand' situation at all?
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#24
09-01-2006, 03:17 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Because if he caps, it probably means a set or a str8 and you don't have odds to draw to your set even if you believe he doesn't have str8. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume he either has a set or a straight, you're going to need some SERIOUS pot odds to draw to your set, regardless of your estimation of the chances he's holding a straight vs. a set. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] I think I do but kind of vaguely. It would be great if you elaborate it a bit. In this hand though I don't want to assume anything, that's why I'm not raising. [/ QUOTE ] In fact when I was writing this I was confusing two hands, so it doesn't apply so much, but really it's a simple question. What are your odds of pulling your queen?
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#25
09-01-2006, 03:21 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
Without considering whether our 3 bet gets capped (on a side note: do you guys really worry about getting capped everytime you 3 bet?) looking at the hand I think my reasoning on the turn would go somthing like this: 1 - our Qs are probably good 2 - even so they are vulnerable 3 - it really seems like UTG+1 is drawing to something 4 - I should raise to get him out Maybe this reasoning is flawed but I would just hate to let UTG+1 tag along with a hand like A7s! Or am I way off and this is not a 'protect your hand' situation at all? [/ QUOTE ] There are some problems with this reasoning: 1. Our hand probably isn't good. MP has just checkraised in a protected pot, he likely has us beat, not 1 time out of 7 or 8 but more than 50% of the time. 2. True. 3. Maybe, or maybe he is getting stuborn with a PP or pair. You certainly have him beat. 4. We probably aren't "getting him out". We may make him pay an incorrect or at least higher price for his draw. What it comes down to is this: is it worth it to make UTG pay to draw when we are probably behind?
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#26
09-01-2006, 03:32 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
What it comes down to is this: is it worth it to make UTG pay to draw when we are probably behind? [/ QUOTE ] Or, to use more std phraseology, can Hero raise for value? Nope.
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#27
09-01-2006, 03:35 PM
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Re: Std Laydown?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What it comes down to is this: is it worth it to make UTG pay to draw when we are probably behind? [/ QUOTE ] Or, to use more std phraseology, can Hero raise for value? Nope. [/ QUOTE ] You and your fancy terminology! Thats what I thought.
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