WSOP ME day 1A Hand - Whats your read?

[whynot?]

i agree - i assume given the somewhat sketchy details, you call with qq, kk as well if you were the kid (and i grant you, you and most folks dont get to this point)

[adanthar]

When the turn and river are taken together, any overpair *was* only beating a bluff, except that aces have a much higher chance of being good now. So the AA, when playing the turn this way (his bet really sucks unless he wanted a raise and knew he was paying off any river), has a totally standard and not reluctant at all c/c on the river.

Queens don't, because queens only beat that bluff and even a bunch of completely random, any two card (sorta semi)bluff hands just got there on the river. I think, playing the hand identically, it's a turn fold, or at least a river fold (but I would CR big on the turn instead, or bet more than 1500, or *something*.)

The LAG played it OK but he messed up pot sizes on the turn and river (or just didn't want to shove anywhere) which was the reason he failed in the end (or could have failed vs. QQ). If he makes it 4K and then shoves on the river his bet is a lot scarier to a typical ME player.

edit: sweet, I play MLG pokah gud

[uclabruinz]

Locutus, I'm going to be results oriented here and point out that TAG did in fact have AA and LAG essentially had any two, since he claims to have put TAG on a better hand and was trying to push him off it (i.e., he knew he was beaten so he might as well have had any two). So maybe I'm not so silly?

[adanthar]

BTW, AA *turbo* checks the river, b/c there's absolutely no reason to bet vs. a LAG other than getting stacked by a boat.

[uclabruinz]

When action gets to LAG on the turn, the pot is about 6k and he has about 8.5k behind him. I was just reading in the new Sklansky/Miller book about dividing up bets on the turn and river in a bluffing situation, a topic I found most interesting.

Adanthar suggests making it 4k on the turn, which leaves LAG with 4.5k behind him and, if TAG calls, a pot of about 12.5k if he is checked to on the river. Does this really leave him any chance of pushing TAG off the hand on the river? If not, why not just shove the turn? It seems that LAG's best opportunities are shoving the turn or the donk-minraise move followed by a shove on the river.

Mike, you criticized LAG's turn bet here. How would you bet the turn and river in order to maximize the possibility of inducing TAG to fold his better hand?

[locutus2002]

Yes, poorly played. TAG has an easy c/call on the river as Adanthar pointed out. He is probably better off betting the river as Mike pointed out (although c/call is OK).

LAG miniraised with what should have been the worst hand, getting no FE.

don't be results oriented. OP read that button was a LAG is probably incorrect.

Leading the turn for T1500 with AA, only calling a miniraise and c/calling the river is probably not equity maximizing versus ANY of the other ways you could play the hand, unless you expected button to bluff the river which was clearly not the case if it took so long to call.

[adanthar]

He has 10K behind, so a raise to 4K gives him 6K to shove on the river, which is way better than this "I minraise, followed by a bet of 2/3 my stack for no real reason" thing he's doing here.

[uclabruinz]

You're right, Adanthar, although if the 4k turn bet gets called do we really think there's much fold equity in the river shove? This kind of move is way beyond my style.

As for the TAG kid, the only mistake I see was the turn bet. If I were him, with a tight image against a LAG who has so far called my preflop and flop bets, I just check to him on the turn to project AK or AQ and give him his awaited opportunity to take the pot from me. I call his turn bet (with a small amount of projected reluctance) and check/call the river.

[uclabruinz]

Locutus, you can never be results oriented in assigning ranges. By examining results, that's how we learn how villains play hands. They're not all us, or 2p2ers, and it is a mistake to project the way we would play a hand onto all other villains. Don't ask yourself, "how would I play this hand if I were him," ask yourself, "what do I think of this guy and how does a guy like that play this hand?"

[Knockwurst]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, poorly played. TAG has an easy c/call on the river as Adanthar pointed out. He is probably better off betting the river as Mike pointed out (although c/call is OK).

LAG miniraised with what should have been the worst hand, getting no FE.

don't be results oriented. OP read that button was a LAG is probably incorrect.

Leading the turn for T1500 with AA, only calling a miniraise and c/calling the river is probably not equity maximizing versus ANY of the other ways you could play the hand, unless you expected button to bluff the river which was clearly not the case if it took so long to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems that TAGs play was reasonable w/ AA. I can't see why he needs to play for his entire stack on the turn, which he might end up doing if he comes over the top. The river helps his hand. But it would be tough for him to call a push on the river. So with AA against LAGs call and min raise with that board, I'd think you would want to see a showdown as cheaply as possible.

LAGs play on the turn wasn't bad if he put the Kid on AK or TT+ with the idea of 1/2 pot bet on the end to make those hands fold while LAG committed as few chips as possible to make the play. He got hosed when the river made a wheel for any ace so that an A calls probably any bet. I think his bet on the end folds any PP less than AA. Maybe he had to go all in on the end, but that looks pretty suspicious and maybe the AA should look him up. So his turn + river play folds pocket pairs less than aces while committing the least amount of chips.