Pair+OESD vs. flop overbet. PP100 6max

[younghov17]

14 outs twice, when he almost certainly has at best a high pair it should only take 10 seconds to figure out that its +ev to push

[Spicymoose]

I think a large portion of his range is an overpair (maybe TT+), in which case you have around 50% equity. I don't think you have much fold equity against this range, but even if your fold equity is small (say 10%), you are winning around 36 BB, when your equity share is only 18 BB, making a 2 BB profit overall. If he folds at all more often, you win even more.

Compare that to what you may gain when he has a hand such as AK, or maybe KQ or other overcards. When he has overcards, your equity is 80%, and since you have position, you are even more likely to take down whatever he bets again. Unfortunately, these overcards are not too likely in his range, given that he reraised from the SB. His oversized flop bet also looks a lot more like a PP thatn overcards. On top of this, even if he does have the overcards, he is not ALL that likely to fire a second barrel, given how passive he is, and the scary board.

Overall, I think this may be a push.

[antidan444]

younghov: I'll concede I probably need to recommit my "odds with two cards to come" knowledge to memory.

[CaptainNurple]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like a push. You need very little FE to make a shove profitable, and even if you think it is minimal, I would think you have some. It's pretty close, and others may disagree with this logic, but in spots like this I decide based on how I've been running. If I've been running hot I usually shove here, if I've been running like [censored], I will often fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this reasoning doesnt make any sense, no offense

[/ QUOTE ]

It actually makes perfect sense. It's psychological, not mathematical. Obviously "running hot" has no effect on what cards are going to come, but opponents are almost always more inclined to fold to your bet when you've been winning a lot of pots.

Thus, "running hot" = greater FE

Brunson talks about this a lot, the fact that you have to be winning hands in order to push people around most effectively.

Simply put, if you're winning lots of pots people are more scared of you. It may not be rational, but the emotional doubt is still there.

[younghov17]

what i meant was deciding whther or nto to fold when its +ev to push based on whther or not ur running hot makes no sense