99 - rag flop; two bets to me in pre-flop capped pot 4-ways - Page 3

Catt · #21 05-10-2006, 12:36 AM

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(4) The flop itself was pretty damn good for my hand, but if I were to continue on with no chance to try and thin the field by facing two players with two cold by C/Ring the expected MP lead, I had to decide whether making it three either (1) had sufficient value, and/or (2) could induce a fold from a hand that I'd like to fold.

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The real question is how much a 3-bet improves your chances of winning the hand. If this amount was substantial, then it would be important to 3-bet, even if you had less than 50% equity against the MP. But this is actually quite a parlay:

a. You have to have the best hand right now;
b. You can't be outdrawn by MP, who certainly isn't going anywhere.
c. BB and UTG have to have something that they'll fold -- this seems possible for UTG but unlikely for BB.

My guess is that your nines are currently best and won't be outdrawn by MP about 1/3 of the time. I'd also guess that, on average, a 3-bet will fold something like 4 non-redundant outs. So I think a 3-bet buys you about 1 1/3 worth of an out (4 x 1/3), or about 3% of the pot.

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Where do we account for the likelihood of BB folding for two more (is it imputed in the 4 non-redundent outs that will fold versus some larger number of outs?). Or is this what you calculate we're buying assuming BB folds to the three bet?

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(6) There are a crapload of turn cards I'm going to hate, and I'll be first to act on the turn if I see it; since I'm first to act, if I three-bet and get called in three places, the turn is going to be a very uncomfortable bet or a very uncomfortable check.

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I actually think the play is to call here and lead out and call one raise on a comfortable turn card, and check and call one bet on a somewhat uncomfortable turn card.

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How are you reacting if we call and BB makes it three bets (or UTG comes out of nowhere to do so)? Or if one of them makes it 3 and MP caps it?

Nate tha\\\' Great · #22 05-10-2006, 12:43 AM

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(4) The flop itself was pretty damn good for my hand, but if I were to continue on with no chance to try and thin the field by facing two players with two cold by C/Ring the expected MP lead, I had to decide whether making it three either (1) had sufficient value, and/or (2) could induce a fold from a hand that I'd like to fold.

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The real question is how much a 3-bet improves your chances of winning the hand. If this amount was substantial, then it would be important to 3-bet, even if you had less than 50% equity against the MP. But this is actually quite a parlay:

a. You have to have the best hand right now;
b. You can't be outdrawn by MP, who certainly isn't going anywhere.
c. BB and UTG have to have something that they'll fold -- this seems possible for UTG but unlikely for BB.

My guess is that your nines are currently best and won't be outdrawn by MP about 1/3 of the time. I'd also guess that, on average, a 3-bet will fold something like 4 non-redundant outs. So I think a 3-bet buys you about 1 1/3 worth of an out (4 x 1/3), or about 3% of the pot.

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Where do we account for the likelihood of BB folding for two more (is it imputed in the 4 non-redundent outs that will fold versus some larger number of outs?). Or is this what you calculate we're buying assuming BB folds to the three bet?

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I'm trying to account for everything in one fell swoop: the probability of BB folding times the number of hands that he does fold, plus the same calculation for UTG. Admittedly, this is fuzzy. One of the complicating issues is that BB (and UTG) have fewer outs those times that they will fold to our 3-bet.

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(6) There are a crapload of turn cards I'm going to hate, and I'll be first to act on the turn if I see it; since I'm first to act, if I three-bet and get called in three places, the turn is going to be a very uncomfortable bet or a very uncomfortable check.

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I actually think the play is to call here and lead out and call one raise on a comfortable turn card, and check and call one bet on a somewhat uncomfortable turn card.

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How are you reacting if we call and BB makes it three bets (or UTG comes out of nowhere to do so)? Or if one of them makes it 3 and MP caps it?

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Then it's time for the old pray-n-spike.

Catt · #23 05-10-2006, 01:23 AM

So maybe I'm not so rusty that I can't spot what might be an interesting hand. Anyway, I decided to call-and-see, not sure what the three-bet bought me and wondering at the time if not folding outright might be a better play. I wanted to see the remaining flop action and then see what the turn brought.

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG calls, MP caps, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, UTG calls, MP raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets, Hero raises . . .

Great turn card. Was this a mistake not leading the turn (pretend you can't see that BB checked it and that I was presented with an opp to C/R)? I'm assuming most agree with C/Ring here after the flop+turn action, though perhaps not. UTG is a cipher, and I suppose a read on him would weight the wisdom of a turn C/R a fair bit.

Josh. · #24 05-10-2006, 02:49 AM

i agree with what nate said that you should bet the turn. that turn action is ideal but he's going to take his free card too often. plus, when he does bet it's likely he now has a pair. he likely checks a draw or AK there. so not only are you banking on the action going perfectly, you've set up a situation where you're raising a hand that's probably got you beaten

Catt · #25 05-10-2006, 12:53 PM

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i agree with what nate said that you should bet the turn. that turn action is ideal but he's going to take his free card too often. plus, when he does bet it's likely he now has a pair. he likely checks a draw or AK there. so not only are you banking on the action going perfectly, you've set up a situation where you're raising a hand that's probably got you beaten

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Yeah - the free card possibility means I think I should have bet the turn. I'm rusty and the BB's flop 3-bet threw me off a bit - I figured even if he was on FD he'd lead the turn since it seems to me that there are relatively few players who pump a FD on the flop from EP and then have the discipline to check the turn when it's still multiway and the flush doesn't hit.

Does his flop 3-bet change things at all from your perspective (or Nate's, or CDC's) or is it still the clear play to lead figuring on a decent likelihood of BB being on a draw and MP, if we're ahead, taking the freebie?

The Funky Llama · #26 05-10-2006, 02:12 PM

I would call. Nobody has mentioned that if you turn a 9 (which won't complete any flush draws) you are gonna make a boatload of small bets on the turn and river. This is somewhat offset by the fact that it will often be expensive to show the hand down UI and the the fact that the betting could be capped on the flop (28:4 if it remains 4way), but still your implied odds are huge on average. You also have backdoor straight and flush draws.

This, together with the fact that you have the best hand a lot makes folding bad imo. I don't see much good coming from 3betting.

Punker · #27 05-10-2006, 02:50 PM

I really think a fold is in order here. You are getting only 10-1 here and even if you are ahead (which is really in question here), you've gotta be up against massive numbers of overcards and the strong chance of a flush draw.

There are basically two scenarios here; you are currently ahead but against 4-5 random overcards and a pair currently on board (let's also assume there's a flush draw). In such a case, you have about 33% pot equity. (I used sample hands of AJ hearts, AQ, and K7).

Scenario 2: You are up against at least one overpair. In such cases, you have about 8% pot equity.

Also to consider: flop action is not yet closed, and a player on a draw likely has odds to repop it if you come in.

By my rough calculations, you have to be in the situation where you have the best hand on the flop about 25% of the time to have immediate odds to call this hand. Further, the implied odds on a hand like this are almost all against you - there are only two cards that improve your hand going forward, and 20+ that wreck it, and your immediate odds are not yet completely clear. Further, you are out of position and will not be able to extract maximum value on subsequent streets (eg, assume you call here and everyone calls, and they all miss their supposed draws on the turn - you won't be able to lead out on the turn into a bunch of essentially unknown hands).

I think it's a pretty clean fold and am surprised at the responses advocating calling or raising.