I finally made a set but...

[BigBadBabar]

there are 3 hands that beat us: AA, KJ, J9

i don't think based on the read and turn action that he ever has J9. it's also unlikely that he has AA unless people are being bad tricky at .5/1. it is possible that he has KJ and his play is consistent with a big hand.

there are several hands that we beat: set of tens, set of threes, AQ, AT, A3, and QT. granted i don't think all of the two pair hands would get played that strongly, but at least some of them would, in combination. say at least 1 and maybe two--say AQ and AT to be safe.

assuming he gives this action with KJ (beats us) and TTT, 333, and possibly AQ and AT (we beat) then we're ahead more than we're behind so i raise for value. i do call the river 3bet if we get 3bet, however.

that's my thought process.

[BigBadBabar]

also making a post where we have a monster and the punchline is "can i fold this?" and there's only one reasonable hand (kj) that he can have that beats us, might be being results oriented. next time just post the hand and the action and not that kind of comment along with it because it might skew your responses which you don't want.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
insane.

raise and call a 3bet. i think it's lower sets/2 pair more than it's kj.

[/ QUOTE ]



Raising the river after the turn action is bad, bad... because

[ QUOTE ]
but seemed rather passive post-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BigBadBabar]

but villain is new meaning not actually a read at all

[BigBadBabar]

and ppl go buckwild here with lower sets all the time.

now i admit i don't have any experience in the stars .5/1 game or at that level in a while, so the games may have changed, and i do agree that stars fullring seems nitty.

but i would be tremendously surprised if this were always kj and kj only.

[Aaron W.]

I would raise here and probably just call a 3-bet (though it's close to a cap because of the 4 bet limit instead of the 5 bet limit). You beat a lot of hands that can give you too much action, like AT, A3, AQ, and 33 (and yes, TT shows up sometimes, too.)

[Shillx]

I think you're screwed. Three ways to have 33, 9 for AT, 3 for AQ, 3 for TT and 3 for QT. There are 16 ways he can have KJ and 3 for AA. So you are a 21:19 favorite. Uh yeah just call.

[tailspin4540]

Didn't see the straight draw at first, but given the action, I can't put villian on one ace, let alone two. But what's tough is I think KJ and TT play this the same.

Still, Hero raises, calls a 3-bet, and makes a note afterwards regardless of the outcome.

[NigelSmith]

[ QUOTE ]
it's also unlikely that he has AA unless people are being bad tricky at .5/1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just a warning for those who haven't played 'Stars at this level for a while -- smooth-calling a raise with AA in the blinds is all the rage at the moment. I must have seen a dozen different people do it last week. LRR from EP has made a comeback, too...

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're screwed. Three ways to have 33, 9 for AT, 3 for AQ, 3 for TT and 3 for QT. There are 16 ways he can have KJ and 3 for AA. So you are a 21:19 favorite. Uh yeah just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hope you dont mind my quoting you Shillx.

I was going to say something similar with the possible hand combinations, but I wasnt going to include AA in villain's range.

If you raise/call a 3-bet, I think the following will happen most of the time:

If you have the best hand, your opponent will probably call and you will gain an extra bet.

If your opponent has the best hand, he will 3-bet and you will lose an additional two bets.

That suggests that you really need to be a 2:1 favourite to have the best hand, for your raise/call a 3-bet on the river to be for value.

So using the above likely possible hand combinations summary, you are only a 21:19 favourite to have the best hand.

So, you just call the river bet.