tough spot vs willw9

[steel108]

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When I say lol, I don't mean I'm doing this all the time with air. I just thought it was funny that Buke so definitively said "NEVER."

In addition, I find that is is incredibly easy to read hands in multiway pots. If someone fires into a 4 way pot, I can very accurately narrow their range, and I can exploit them accordingly. Also, most of the responses have narrowed my range to exactly like 2 hands, 33 and big draws. It is clear that we don't want to run AJ against this range, because we are SA/WB yada yada. Since I know that I can accurately peg the first "shell" (bet) in a multiway pot, it should be even easier to peg the second "shell" (my raise) in this pot, right? You guys think you narrowed it down to basically 2 hands and nothing else. Wouldn't deviating from this be just a little profitable since most players are so confident in their read here?

FWIW, you could obviously use my argument against me for trying to exploit the "first shell" range, but most players just don't have the balls to fire 22 as the PFR. That, and its hugely -EV. However, if I raise the initial bet with air, it's not a "stab in the dark range expansion" like firing the flop with 22 would be. It's going to be a heads up pot, and not very many hands in villain's range (which I have pegged pretty accurately) can stand heat.

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This is 200NL. You are SERIOUSLY out thinking yourself. I really hope you don't try to play fancy at this limit. ABC poker and table selection will get you 5 pt/bb, there is honestly no need to try to be CTS here.

[terp]

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When I say lol, I don't mean I'm doing this all the time with air. I just thought it was funny that Buke so definitively said "NEVER."

In addition, I find that is is incredibly easy to read hands in multiway pots. If someone fires into a 4 way pot, I can very accurately narrow their range, and I can exploit them accordingly. Also, most of the responses have narrowed my range to exactly like 2 hands, 33 and big draws. It is clear that we don't want to run AJ against this range, because we are SA/WB yada yada. Since I know that I can accurately peg the first "shell" (bet) in a multiway pot, it should be even easier to peg the second "shell" (my raise) in this pot, right? You guys think you narrowed it down to basically 2 hands and nothing else. Wouldn't deviating from this be just a little profitable since most players are so confident in their read here?

FWIW, you could obviously use my argument against me for trying to exploit the "first shell" range, but most players just don't have the balls to fire 22 as the PFR. That, and its hugely -EV. However, if I raise the initial bet with air, it's not a "stab in the dark range expansion" like firing the flop with 22 would be. It's going to be a heads up pot, and not very many hands in villain's range (which I have pegged pretty accurately) can stand heat.

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This is 200NL. You are SERIOUSLY out thinking yourself. I really hope you don't try to play fancy at this limit. ABC poker and table selection will get you 5 pt/bb, there is honestly no need to try to be CTS here.

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meh against the right three other people in the hand this is not true and it just becomes a math question of how often one of them will have A3 or better.

i'd prefer to have more than 10% equity to make this move (a pocket pair versus an ace) but to say he should never do this is passing up value, even if it is just a tiny bit.

we can make 5ptbb table selecting and playing the easier spots but if we think a little deeper we can scoop money out of spots like this, too.

[Bukem_]

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there is honestly no need to try to be CTS here.

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cts doesn't do this with air either.

[Fly]

major LOL @ the same people saying AJ = ez fold and raising air = horrible

[True]

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there is honestly no need to try to be CTS here.

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cts doesn't do this with air either.

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interesting and misinformed statement.

[terp]

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major LOL @ the same people saying AJ = ez fold and raising air = horrible

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i wasn't gonna point this out, but cool

[Vegas_VIP]

I'd Fold here as well calling with Aj, isnt great here. Standard fold.

[delta k]

you can't say that it's an easy fold w/ AJ and that he never has air, because if you'll fold as hand as strong as AJ here then making plays with air becomes EXTREMELY profitable, obviously.

now i think his raise size tells us he has either a draw or a hand. but i'm leaning towards draw- something he wouldn't mind taking down now. a much smaller raise would have worked as bluff just as well, IMO, and the chances that he makes such a huge raise on a bluff here is pretty low i think.

[aislephive]

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you can't say that it's an easy fold w/ AJ and that he never has air, because if you'll fold as hand as strong as AJ here then making plays with air becomes EXTREMELY profitable, obviously.

now i think his raise size tells us he has either a draw or a hand. but i'm leaning towards draw- something he wouldn't mind taking down now. a much smaller raise would have worked as bluff just as well, IMO, and the chances that he makes such a huge raise on a bluff here is pretty low i think.

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Agreed 100%. Although I think the majority of 2p2ers would fold AJ to a raise here in this multiway pot, and a bluff here I think is definitely profitable, but I don't think most people would just raise here with air regardless.

[steel108]

Calling in this spot is idiotic. Your either pushing or folding (assuming villan will keep the pressure). Raising air is horrible here IMO. There are probably 7-8 hands that will continue to a nice raise, but HERO has over repped his hand here by betting into a large field. My main point is that 200NL is pretty easy and there is honestly no reason to try and "outplay" people; it's just spew bc nobody ever folds at 200 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]