NBA Overlays - December

[dudeimstoked]

thanks for the lakers bet too. i was going to bet the spread, but i always check your thread to see what you think on the games and you changed my mind.

[rjp]

YTD: 49-30-1 (+10.67 units; ROI: 13.51%)

Orlando Magic -1 (+102)

As surprising as this might sound, the Magic are catching the Suns at the right time. The Suns come into this game on a 10 game winning streak, but the streak seems likely to end tonight in Orlando.

The Magic play fairly well at home, and they get the Suns playing their 4th game in 5 days on a back-to-back. Odds are the Magic win this game often enough to have value with either laying the point or the money line, and I find more value with laying the point.

[dudeimstoked]

[ QUOTE ]
Glad LA came through, but I realized my software didn't grade a wager on 11/22 (it was still listed as pending). With the update my record after last night is 49-30-1 (+10.67 units; ROI: 13.51%).

[/ QUOTE ]

what software do you use? thanks.

[rjp]

It's some web based software I wrote... you can find it here. It's free.

[rjp]

Indiana Pacers +11 (-112)

I expect O’Neal to miss this game tonight, and Jackson is suspended for tonight’s game. Without O’Neal the Pacers figure to struggle, and I rarely expect them to win this game. Without Jackson, however, Indiana is likely to play a little better (after all, he deserved to be benched after letting LeBron torch him).

Blowout losses happen, but they’re not the norm. This is a game where a blowout is a little more likely to happen than any other, but the Pacers should cover 11 points more often than not.

[rjp]

YTD: 49-32-1 (+8.67 units; ROI: 10.70%)

Denver Nuggets -225

Denver and Atlanta met a week ago in Denver, with Atlanta overcoming a deficit in the 4th quarter to win. Recent play suggests Denver is a much better team than Atlanta, and I figure Denver is likely to play their best given the motivation of a blowout loss to Dallas and the recent “bad beat” by the Hawks. Atlanta should be motivated as well after being blown out by Sacramento, but I figure Denver wins this game often enough to be profitable at this price.

It appears as though any value had with laying the points with the Nuggets was bet out overnight.

Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-105)

Seattle has played well in their last three games without Allen, and this is the likely scenario for teams that lose their best player. The team tries a little harder to make up for the loss, while the opponent tends to play with less intensity as they’re not facing a team’s top competition.

Seattle now goes on the road, and at some point their play will show what the loss of Allen really means to the team. Just looking at recent play and you’d be inclined to feel this line is about right. Milwaukee, however, should be motivated and play with more intensity tonight, especially after a loss to the Knicks in New York. It shouldn’t take too much longer for Villanueva to get into a rythm now that he’s back, and I expect Milwaukee wins this game often enough to find value with laying the points or the money line. In this case I find more value with laying the points.

[Queensgrad]

I am with you on MIL, nice analysis. Do you have a feel for the total in the DEN games, or do you not like betting totals since they can so much variance.

[rjp]

I actually feel totals can potentially offer more value from a strictly mathematical standpoint but the tools I've put in place for myself this year require more time than I have to handicap totals so I leave them alone. Recent play suggests the total should be ~205.5.

[BarryLyndon]

I agree with Denver against Atlanta, though for slightly different reasons than a trend analysis.

George Karl is a smart coach and Denver has reasonably smart players. They lost to Atlanta by two a week ago, so, yes, they should be out "for blood" + they have more tools to make good adjustments.

Denver has been doing well against mediocre teams and J.R. Smith has shown a consistency that should be scary against mediocre teams + slightly above average ones. They got beat down by Dallas, but that doesn't mean much as Dallas is going to whip a lot ~50 win teams this year. It should be noted that Josh Howard was Anthony's match up and that Josh Howard is a beast.

Not sure about Seattle v. Milawakee and am going to avoid betting on this game. Seattle's losses this year have been against good teams, and those losses aren't harrowing nor indicative as to Seattle's ability to play small ball against mediocre teams. Milawakee's record is a bit inflated considering that it's based on a three game winning streak against ass teams and two of those games were pretty close. They proved just how erratic they are against the Knicks.

We don't know quite what Seattle's winning streak means yet in the context of beingn able to beat teams like Milawakee.

[rjp]

YTD: 50-33-1 (+8.11 units; ROI: 9.77%)

I made these earlier this morning, and it seems there’s a good bit of money that disagrees with Miami and Charlotte. You might be able to get an even better number as the day progresses, but I would expect some buy back with Miami and Charlotte.

Miami Heat +9.5 (+101)

Miami will be without D-Wade tonight, and to me this game most resembles the start of the season when Kobe Bryant missed the opener for LA, which, ironically enough was against Phoenix. Like Kobe, D-Wade means a lot to the Heat. While I don’t expect Miami to win this game, they should more often than not cover the point spread.

Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 (-110)

Charlotte will likely have Brevin Knight back for this game, and they’ll need him if they want any chance to win this game. They’ve been trounced at home by the Suns and Rockets, and I figure they’ll be more motivated than Cleveland. Cleveland likely wins this game a good portion of the time, but Charlotte is more likely to keep this close.

Atlanta Hawks +7 (-104)

Atlanta will likely be without Johnson until this weekend, and last night’s blowout loss to Denver is surely demoralizing. Tonight they draw the Knicks, a team that is not very good at home. Although the Hawks won’t have Johnson, the drop off in talent between the Hawks and Knicks isn’t this much. I would expect New York to win this game (not a common occurrence, mind you), but they shouldn’t be laying this number to anyone.

Milwaukee Bucks +7 (-106)

Milwaukee got lucky to win last night’s game. Not that they weren’t a better team, but they shot just ~7% from 3-point range. Tonight they’ll have to get ready for the Nets, a team that beat them by double digits about a month ago. The Nets haven’t shown to be a dominant team yet, and they’re not likely to beat the Bucks by more than 7 points.

Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 (-109)

Minnesota is really coming together lately, while the Spurs look to have another team that will make a serious run at the title. San Antonio is likely to win this game, but they’d have to almost never lose for 9.5 points to be a true median. I figure Minnesota to have a small chance of winning, and I find value with the points.

Los Angeles Lakers +8.5 (-108)

The Lakers will be without Odom until January, while the Mavericks are likely to be without Stackhouse until the end of the week. The Mavericks will likely play with more focus and intensity than LA tonight, but getting this many points with the Lakers figures to be profitable.